Lockdown is prison with key to the door
THE pandemic and economic messages we are getting from both local and national press are quite confusing to we who spend some part of our day trying to make some sense and take some guidance as to which way the world is going round.
Let me give just a few examples. William Telford reports ( WMN, 25 September) that Kim Conchie, CEO of Cornwall Chamber of Commerce, “... welcomed as good news the Chancellor’s Winter Economy Plan as assisting the hospitality and tourism business and holding the 15% VAT reduction.”
On page 4, the welcome had been downgraded to a cautious one, while the Exeter Chamber warned that more measures would be needed.
The Westcountry hospitality and tourist industry has just had its best year since yonks!! The Government virtually outlawed foreign holidays with 14 days isolation if you went further than the Isle of Wight. My week in a £550 per week Cornwall holiday let cottage showed a visitors book full since late April – and it was a splendid away-from-it-all spot and I’m not going to tell you where.
The photo of the pained expression on Chancellor Sunak’s face tells how pleased he was (?) that two days earlier his boss, our Prime Minister, announced the 10pm curfew on pubs and restaurants.
The WMN on 26 September reports the closure of the St Ives centre town bistro restaurant of Mr and Mrs Chapman... with a “thank you” message to Mr Johnson.
Page 25 of the WMN reports on the very powerfully sensible letter signed by 32 physicians, many of them holding significant positions in the field of medical care. It’s at the bottom of page 5 and should have been the top of page 1, which is why I headed this letter “selective lockdown” as clear evidence to support Mrs Chapman who points out just 5% of positive Covid cases are linked to the hospitality industry.
Without success I have tried to find data on the age bands of the daily infection rate of the now plus 6,000 reported cases. My reason is I do believe that social habits determine the infection rates in the various age bands.
The highest level of social association must be the bands aged eight to 16 and then 17 to 25-30, lowering a little at ages 30 to 45 and again lower at ages 50 to 65 and lower still in the ages 65 plus.
There are exceptions in the various age bands – the churches, clubs and associations retired people belong to, though most of those have been sadly mothballed. I would suggest the infection rate is lowest in the 65 plus age range and lower still if we moved the ages to 70 to 90. With a daily rate of infection of 6,000 and mortality of say 45/50 per day which is less than 0.75%, I would suggest that mortality ranges from 0% at age 25/30, a fraction of 1% at 35 to 45, then a steady increase in the percentage to 100% at age 99.
Some weeks ago I wrote of the payments of up to £11,000 to small hospitality businesses affected by the lockdown closure. Many of them were personal “Buy to Let” property in the hospitality category. Within a month Cornwall tourist officials reported that Cornwall was “full” and people were sleeping in tents in farmer’s fields. £71 million was dispensed to personal businesses owners of property in Cornwall – more than half did not live in the county. I read (WMN 25th September) of a food processing business that identified some 80 plus employees testing positive. Why and how did that happen?
Yesterday I attended a gathering for the annual flu jab in the arm jamboree. Before I got anywhere near the door to go in I was shot by a temperature gun. I survived below 98.4. I wonder if that food processing business shot all their staff every day before they entered the building and were not found with a high temperature – until 80 plus were. How many businesses conduct a daily temperature check before any employee, including the owner, enters the building? If you do run a temperature and are told to go home and isolate it means report sick. Sickness benefit is less than £80 per week, when going to work pay is maybe £200 per week plus. Do you know anyone who can live on £80 per week?
The WMN 25 September reported property sales of £1m plus had increased by as much as 150% in the year in Westcountry counties. When demand surges, so do prices while nationally the economic downturn and the effect of the Covid pandemic will see unemployment soar to ??? – name your own figure.
The Prime Minster talks of a one nation economy. A 14-day isolation for a worker that then proves negative will cost a worker a minimum of £240.
May I mention us senior citizens and the problem of Covid-19 loneliness amongst some of them. Many of my circle of friends are post retirement and within the age band 65 plus through to nearly 90. Most are financially secure. Many are socially insecure. The worst case scenario during the spring lockdown was the single retired person, sometimes widowed, living alone in a flat with no garden. Lockdown was described to me as being in prison but with the key to the door.
So they could go out to nowhere. Some would go days and not share a word with anyone. I heard of some who would ring a friend and make arrangements to meet for a chat in the supermarket queue. I know of some married couples for whom lockdown was a pastoral holiday.
The Covid-19 casualty rate amongst the elderly is high and so they exercise considerable caution at a price of socialising.
The Government needs to be made aware of the consequences of imposed isolation and added social risk for the elderly and look for ways of selective closures and selective openings, where our seniors can safely meet and mix socially and be free of the label ‘old and lonely’. One nation economically and socially.