Scientists warn festive socialising will be risky
EASING coronavirus restrictions over Christmas could lead to a third wave of the pandemic and another lockdown, scientists have warned.
Boris Johnson has told families they must make a “personal judgement” about the risks of coronavirus to vulnerable loved ones when forming a Christmas ‘bubble’. The Prime Minister urged the public to “think carefully” over the festive period, after it was confirmed on Tuesday that three households will be able to mix from December 23 to 27.
The UK Government and devolved administrations have agreed a joint plan to relax social-distancing rules over the festive period, allowing friends and family to hug for the first time in months, but a member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) warned that the planned easing of measures could lead to a third wave of the pandemic.
Another member said that the risks people take at Christmas-time could lead to more hospital admissions in January, and potentially another lockdown.
A joint-statement issued by the four UK governments said they had been working closely together to find a way for family and friends to see each other, recognising it must be “limited and cautious”.
Each Christmas ‘bubble’ can meet at home, at a place of worship or an outdoor public location, but existing, more restrictive rules on hospitality and other venues will be maintained throughout the period.
Professor Graham Medley, an expert in infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the relaxation of coronavirus restrictions at Christmas could lead to more people being admitted to hospital and further lockdown measures in the new year.
The Sage attendee told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “I think we’re in a process now whereby the population’s risk of filling up the NHS is really being passed down to us as individuals. For other diseases like flu or hepatitis B, the Government doesn’t get involved in helping or determining what our risk is and it is really, I think, for this Christmas up to us as individuals and families to think about what our risks are and how we are going to mitigate them.
“I think it is inevitable that if a lot of people do take that risk, even if it is a small risk, then we will end up with a lot of people in hospital and potentially having to take measures in January to lock down again.”
Andrew Hayward, professor of infectious diseases epidemiology at University College London, and a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), warned easing measures would lead to increased transmission and a possible “third wave” of infection.
“Effectively, what this will be doing is throwing fuel on the Covid fire,” the professor, who is also a Sage member, said. He added: “With the vaccine on the way, if we are not very careful over Christmas we are really in danger of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory on this one.”
The British Medical Association has also warned that easing of coronavirus restrictions over Christmas will “almost certainly” lead to a rise in the infection rate.