Covid death figures need greater analysis

WE have recently heard the sad and shocking news that in the UK over 100,000 people have died “within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19”. But does this necessarily mean that 100,000 people have died of Covid19? Do we need to consider other factors? Probably, yes.

First, there will inevitably be some false positives in the tests: these people will have died of something else.

Second, despite testing positive 28 days ago, they might have recovered: these people will have died of something else.

Third, the primary cause for their death might have been some other ailment – a heart condition, severe influenza, some genetic problem, etc. Covid might not have contributed to their death, or might only have been a minor contributor. These people will have died of something else.

Fourth, we sometimes see on death certificates “old age” as the cause of death. A large proportion of “Covid-related” deaths are among old people. So these people did not die of Covid, although it might have been a contributory cause to some degree; they just reached the end of their allotted term.

Fifth, controversially, hardpressed medics may put Covid as the cause because they do not have the time or motivation to look further.

Looking at the issue more broadly, it is fair to say that all people with some ailment – e.g. influenza – did not necessarily die of it. For instance, we often hear that men die with prostate cancer, not from it. Just because you have some medical problem, you do not always die because of it.

The upshot is that, of 100,000 people who died within 28 days of a positive test for Covid, a significant proportion may have died with it rather than as a result of it, and a few may not even have been suffering from it at all.

There are two conclusions we can draw from the above thoughts. The first is that we need to consider all statistical “evidence” with a pinch of salt.

This is made the more necessary because the media favour gloom and doom over reasoned exposition and balanced argument.

The truth we come to believe after rational reflection may be less tragic than it appears at first sight.

Second, we may justifiably question why the Government chooses to present the figures in this way: is it to frighten citizens into obeying Covid-restricting measures more carefully?

I would not criticise the Government for this; perhaps the uncaring and unwise people in our society need such coercion.

David Lucas

Liskeard