European Commission issues forecast for economic growth

SENIOR European Commission officials have expressed cautious optimism that European economies will rebound later this year and in 2022.

The forecast comes despite deep uncertainty over a surge in coronavirus cases and the impact of new variants of the disease.

In its winter interim economic forecasts, the European Union’s executive body predicts that growth in the 19 nations using the euro will reach 3.8% this year and next, after a 6.3% drop in 2020.

Growth in the full 27-nation EU is predicted to hit 3.7% in 2021 and 3.9% next year.

The forecasts hinge on the assumption that coronavirus restrictions will remain tight for most of the first half of this year but ease in late spring, when most vulnerable people around Europe, including the elderly and those with other illnesses, are expected to have been vaccinated.

Economy commissioner Paolo Gentiloni conceded that the pandemic was posing major economic and social challenges, but he said “there is, at last, light at the end of the tunnel”.

Commission vice-president Valdis Dombrovskis said the prediction “provides real hope at a time of great uncertainty for us all. The solid expected pick-up of growth in the second half of this year shows very clearly that we are turning the corner in overcoming this crisis”.