Pushed back
COVID-19 enforces change of format in CONCACAF
CONCACAF’s rejig of the 2022 World Cup qualifiers assuaged some criticism in the region, but the big guns still have a head start. Changed due to the pandemic, the new format puts the five highest-ranked nations – Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica and Honduras – straight into a final round, dubbed the Octagonal.
The remaining 30 eligible CONCACAF members play each other once in six groups, with games to commence in March 2021 after a late decision to postpone the original October and November dates. Group winners then play home-and-away for three places in the Octagonal, where the top three qualify for Qatar and the fourth-placed side faces an inter-confederation play-off.
The original format had lowerranked countries battling off for one inter-confederation play-off spot, but the early rounds will still be a dogfight and dissatisfaction remains in the Caribbean, where many countries will look to their diaspora as FIFA redrafts its eligibility rules.
The changes will allow players with three or less caps won before they are 21 to switch nationality, but with the system still favouring the big guns, persuading players to switch will be a huge ask.
LEADING CONTENDERS
The 2019 Gold Cup winners Mexico have stars with massive experience in captain Andres Guardado of Real Betis, Atletico Madrid’s Hector Herrera and Wolves striker Raul Jimenez, and are favourites to win the Octagonal.
The USA ran them close in the Gold Cup final but coach Gregg Berhalter has had mixed results and will want to avoid a repeat of the 3-0 friendly hammering by Mexico in New Jersey last year.
Ronald Brenes only took up the reins at Costa Rica last year but has strength in depth with veteran Bryan Ruiz hoping for a third consecutive World Cup appearance. Maynor Figueroa is one of the few current internationals with more caps than Ruiz, and the Houston Dynamo defender will hope he can lead Honduras back to the World Cup after missing out in 2018.
The new format puts the five highest-ranked nations – Mexico, USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica and Honduras – straight into a final round, dubbed the Octagonal
Jamaica coach Theodore Whitmore has produced a strong run since his side lost to the USA in the Gold Cup semi-final last year. Whitmore played for The Reggae Boyz in their only finals’ appearance in 1998 and his side should challenge for third place or the play-off spot.
THE NEXT RUNG
Under veteran coach Guus Hiddink, Curacao are top seeds in Group C and the eligibility rule change will be a huge benefit to an already-experienced squad led by Cuco Martina, whose most recent clubs include Everton, Stoke and Feyenoord. Hiddink’s stature and links with the Netherlands could unearth plenty more players there.
An easy draw makes Haiti massive favourites in Group E, while ex-Leeds United manager Thomas Christiansen will struggle to hold onto his job if Panama fail to qualify from Group D. Trinidad & Tobago are top seeds in Group F but coach Terry Fenwick’s task is not helped by a battle with FIFA for control of football on the islands.
INTERESTING OUTSIDERS
St. Kitts & Nevis must fancy their chances of beating T&T to top spot in Group F. The federation has a UK scouting system in place and, under former coach Jacques Passy, the players gained valuable experience playing on tours in Europe. New Argentine coach Claudio Caimi has an inspiring leader in West Bromwich Albion playmaker Romaine Sawyers.
Passy has since joined the Dominican Republic, whose players benefit from the island’s new professional league. Captain Miguel Lloyd Troncosco was able to come home to Cibao from a seven-year stint with Panamanian side Arabe Unido and will provide valuable insight on Group D rivals Panama.
The biggest surprise could be Suriname, who had already changed their own eligibility rules to recruit players from a massive Dutch diaspora. So far, coach Dean Gorre has only used
Hapoel Be’er Sheva striker Nigel Hasselbaink, but Galatasaray centrehalf Ryan Donk and former Feyenoord defender Kelvin Leerdam could help challenge favourites Canada in Group B, who have Alphonso Davies and Jonathan David, stand-out performers in Europe in 2019-20, in their ranks.
THE REST
Grenada and Antigua & Barbuda have big diasporas but both were without a coach when the draw was made and look unlikely to challenge top seeds El Salvador in Group A.
Bermuda qualified for their first Gold Cup last year and will provide tougher competition in Group B if Europeanbased players such as the talismanic Nahki Wells of Bristol City are available.
Guyana also made their Gold Cup debut last year and will look to Europe. Persuading West Ham right-back Ryan Fredericks to ditch England aspirations may be hard, but Brazilian coach Marcio Maximo will believe Trinidad’s travails make the Octagonal a realistic target.
For most other small sides, such as the British Virgin Islands, these matches are about blooding young players before the 2026 World Cup, when hosts USA, Canada and Mexico will be absent from the qualifiers and a real opportunity may finally present itself.