Europe section
As Europe’s World Cup qualifiers begin on March 24, Nick Bidwell assesses the likely contenders for Qatar
The jostled international calendar means that Europe’s World Cup qualifying begins before the European Championship finals have taken place. As a result, when the next round of qualifiers occur in September, Europe’s international landscape could look quite different. Somebody will be continental champions and grappling with the pressures that come with that tag, others will be under new management after failing to meet expectations in the summer, while some will have shortened their odds of reaching Qatar with unexpected heroics.
That’s why the three upcoming fixtures are so crucial: no team or coach can be sure what state they’ll be in on the other side of the Euros, and while the delayed finals are undoubtedly the headline event of 2021, nobody can afford to be distracted. Making a good start has never been more important.
THE FAVOURITES
Almost six decades have passed since Brazil claimed back-to-back World Cup titles in 1958 and 1962. Only one team had done it before (Italy, 1934 and 1938), and nobody has done it since. But if any side has the capacity to repeat the feat, it is the current generation of French talent.
Besides boasting incredible strength in depth, they have the sort of winning mentality, organisation and on-field leaders which the best of the rest in Europe can only dream of. In Kylian Mbappe they have a genius in their midst with time very much on his side; the forward will turn 24 in Qatar. Didier Deschamps may not be the most progressive coach, but he knows how to assemble a well-drilled unit. Since Russia they have suffered just two defeats – most recently in a friendly to Group D rivals Finland – yet the idea of them failing to top their pool is absurd.
The same can be said of FIFA’s current No1. ranked side, Belgium. The
usually excel in qualifying, but need a trophy to prove they truly are the real deal. If they fail to win the Euros, their “Golden Generation” - Eden Hazard, Romelu Lukaku and Kevin De Bruyne - will see Qatar as their last chance.
Portugal, Europe’s reigning champions and another serial qualifier, appear even more formidable than their golden days of 2016. In normal circumstances, coach Fernando Santos might look to this new campaign as a chance to ease out his elder statesmen and usher in a new era, led by Bruno Fernandes, Ruben Dias, Diogo Jota, Joao Felix and Ruben Neves. But Joao Moutinho, Jose Fonte and Pepe will be needed until the summer at least, while the squad’s other veteran, Cristiano Ronaldo, is anything but normal. There is every chance he will still be leading the team in Qatar, at the ripe old age of 37.
Criminally absent from the last World Cup, Italy are very much on the mend.
Azzurri boss Roberto Mancini has done an excellent job of re-floating a once sinking ship, bringing more clarity and structure to the team’s play, promoting a string of youngsters and reconnecting with the fans. If Euro 2020 comes too soon for the likes of Sandro Tonali, Nicolo Zaniolo and Moise Kean, this campaign will give them time to mature.
Their biggest obstacle in Group C will be Switzerland who, for some reason, never seem to receive the credit they deserve. Well-organised, hard to beat and opportunistic, they are worth much more than the sum of their parts, and have reached the last three World Cups.
Like Mancini, Gareth Southgate also has a string of exciting youngsters to blood over the next 20 months, with Phil Foden and Bukayo Saka the standouts. Not since 1994 have England failed to reach a World Cup, and it’s hard to imagine that sequence not being extended to seven consecutive qualifications, with a front-line of Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford, Raheem Sterling and Jadon Sancho. The less impressive defence should not be asked too many troubling questions in Group I.
Germany fans are a perplexed community at the moment. A team containing a host of Bayern Munich stars, plus top-quality midfielders Toni Kroos and Ilkay Gundogan and several up-and-coming youngsters, should be on fire. Yet the Nationalmannschaft has veered off course recently, eliminated at the group phase of the 2018 World Cup and only winning three of their eight games in 2020. Joachim Low, due to celebrate 15 years in charge this July, may not survive to see this campaign through to its conclusion. The pressure is already on following November’s 6-0 defeat to Spain, and will be cranked up with anything less than a 100 per cent start to qualifying. Fail in the summer, and his time will surely be up.
Meanwhile in Spain, the dominant team of 2008-12 is a thing of the past, yet a renaissance is underway, led by Manchester City winger Ferran Torres, RB Leipzig forward Dani Olmo and Athletic Bilbao keeper Unai Simon.
No team or coach can be sure what state they’ll be in on the other side of the Euros…making a good start has never been more important
THE CHALLENGERS
While qualification for Euro 2020 was proof that the Oranje were back on the right lines after their 2016 and 2018 failures, they do still have weak points. Defensive midfield and full-back are issues, as is the attack, where Memphis Depay is the only performer of genuine international class. Reservations about new coach Frank de Boer persist, with his marked lack of success at Inter, Crystal Palace and Atlanta United a concern. They can’t be regarded as automatic qualifiers again just yet.
2018 World Cup finalists Croatia still have a surfeit of technical brilliance and attacking precision, with Hoffenheim striker Andrej Kramaric ably supported by Marcelo Brozovic, Ante Rebic and Ivan Perisic. The biggest question mark is over the man who links it all together: Luka Modric. The skipper withdrew from international selection in September, shortly after his 35th birthday, and there is every chance he will hang up his international boots after the summer.
Turkey underscored their ability to mix it at the top by taking four points from their two Euro 2020 qualifiers against France. All credit to coach Senol Gunes, in his second spell in charge of the team, who has created a side that is pragmatic, disciplined and aggressive, with an intense pressing game and a selection of rehearsed set-plays. A good summer showing will be a timely boost in their quest to reach the World Cup for the first time since finishing third in 2002.
THE UNDERDOGS
As long as Robert Lewandowski is on board, Poland can never be discounted. Lewandowski has a decent backing band too, including clever Napoli midfielder Piotr Zielinski, Marseille centre-forward Arkadiusz Milik, Southampton centreback Jan Bednarek and Juventus goalkeeper Wojciech Szczesny.
Since making the last 16 at France ‘98, Norway have failed to make the finals of no fewer than five World Cups. However, the simultaneous emergence of a gaggle of young guns – striker Erling Haaland (Dortmund), midfielders Sander Berge (Sheffield United) and Martin Odegaard (Arsenal), and winger Jens Petter Hauge (Milan) – points to a brighter future.
Once a great striker with Dynamo Kiev and Milan, Andriy Shevchenko is proving to be equally impressive as the coaching brains of a rejuvenated Ukraine, leading the Zbirna to an unbeaten first-place finish in their Euro 2020 qualifying group. Shevchenko has transformed the side out of all recognition, solidifying them as a defensive force, encouraging his full-backs to push on, insisting on a high tempo and often confusing opponents with his use of a false nine. Atalanta attacking midfielder Ruslan Malinovskyi is a key figure.
Russia, quarter-finalists on home soil in 2018, would arguably be even better if coach Stanislav Cherchesov was not so conservative, often too reluctant to release the handbrake and still wary of introducing young talent. One individual to keep an eye on is the fast-improving Roman Zobnin, who tends to play as a dynamic defensive midfielder for Russia, while grafting and probing on the right for Spartak Moscow. For all of March’s 2022 World Cup qualifying fixtures, turn to page 97.