Matthew Emmerson, Partner at Allsop, Leeds

We have recently seen some confidence come back to the market and acclimatisation to current lending rates and costs of living.

Mortgage lending has become more affordable and competitive which is likely to continue during the course of 2024.

With the election on the horizon and inflation falling towards government target levels there is likely to be a fall in the base rate over the course of the year, in particular during the period leading into the election, likely to be in the autumn. Importantly swap rates (inter-bank lending rates) are under the base rate allowing fluidity in the lending market which is not expected to change.

Recent sales transactions are low but this is not due to a lack of appetite to buy more so a lack of property for sale.

We have not been in a scenario whereby owners have had to sell and whilst there will be casualties following recent economic events during 2023 in particular during Q1 and Q2 2024, numbers are unlikely to reach the same levels apparent in 2008/2009, for example.

Obviously, a proportion of prospective purchasers have held off for more competitive lending rates but in the last 12 months a lack of supply has supported capital values.

There are more opportunities in the market now compared to summer 2023 and I predict that transaction volumes will increase as confidence stabilises and envisage a fairly steady outlook in terms of pricing but overall expect between three and five per cent uplift by the end of 2024.

Rents have and will continue to push forward and whilst there has been unprecedented rental increase evident in the region over the last two to three years, there continues to be an acute shortage of stock within the city centres and suburbs and we would expect rents to increase by circa five per cent during the year.