Realities of power dawn on Tories as landslide looms

GIVEN THE state of the polls and the recent local election results, it might be expected that Conservative activists are in a state of unending early celebration while their Labour counterparts are resigned to heavy defeat and plotting what happens next to their party.

The reality is rather different and more complex.

Of course there are those in all parties who treat politics as something akin to a football match where winning is all, and the margin of victory equates to bragging rights for the months and years to come.

But they are in the minority, and the thoughtful majority working for and representing both major parties have much to ponder.

Far from crowing at their likely victory, speak to many in Conservative ranks and it becomes clear they are starting to contemplate the responsibility to the country and the party they will have to shoulder if the electorate delivers the mandate Theresa May is demanding.

A huge Commons majority will leave the Prime Minister nowhere to hide. No longer able to point to the risk of Opposition manoeuvres and with ranks of new MPs on her own side who owe their seat to her popularity, she will have to face the music if the dire warnings of Brexitsceptics come to pass.

For the party, this General Election could truly be a landmark moment. For all the mutterings that some seats previously considered out of reach to the Conservatives might become targets at this election, few actually believed that the Tories could make their marks in towns and cities previously written off as ‘no go areas’. Their surprise victory in the Tees Valley metro-mayor election last week has opened many eyes.

This election is now seen by some in the party as a once-ina-generation opportunity to reshape the political landscape, but they also see a risk that expectations could be raised that cannot be met and the hardwon trust of voters in heartland Labour areas could be quickly lost again for decades to come.

On Labour’s side, there is realism at a local level that the party is not going to be in government on June 9 irrespective of the merit or sincerity of the pronouncements being made by Jeremy Corbyn.

But there is a grim determination to try and prevent those Yorkshire MPs who are well regarded from having to pay the price for the failings of the party’s leadership.

There is a particularly acute sense of injustice felt for those who campaigned tirelessly to win or hold onto marginal seats in 2015 and now find themselves just two years later facing defeat.

That, more than Mr Corbyn’s pleas for unity, is what is fuelling a determined ground campaign by longstanding Labour supporters, many of whom wryly note it is they who are knocking on doors and posting leaflets while the wave of new members who joined to propel Mr Corbyn to his two leadership victories are often nowhere to be seen.

In Labour ranks there is also a genuine conviction that a Conservative landslide can be avoided. The surprise nature of the election has led to Conservative candidates being chosen at short notice and given little time to build their profile. The feedback from Labour canvassing is that Brexit is less of an issue than Mrs May might like. Factors such as these give Labour hope June 8 will only be uncomfortable and not catastrophic.

THERESA MAY’S ‘strong and stable’ leadership mantra has been much mocked, particularly by the media paid to listen to it several times a day.

But perhaps the Liberal Democrats could consider taking a leaf out of this pared-down approach to campaigning.

Having been decimated at the polls two years ago, the Leave vote in last year’s referendum has opened up a much shorter route to recovery than many in the party might have been expecting.

Mrs May’s hard Brexit approach and Labour’s tortuous position have made the Liberal Democrats the only home for angry Remainers.

And yet, rather than pressing home this unique selling point, the Lib Dems appear determined to hamper their own chances.

Having lost local council seats last week, the party responded by setting plans to raise income tax, including for basic rate payers, to pay for policies it will never have to enact because it will not form the next government.

If that was not enough, the party then unveiled its general election team, packed with faces such as former Energy Secretary Sir Ed Davey, which simply served to remind voters of the the party’s role in the 2010-15 coalition for which voters punished the Lib Dems two years ago.

Yes, media-types like me would moan about the monotony of the campaign, but the Lib Dems should ruthlessly focus on Conservative-held seats in Remain areas where the MP backed Leave and talk about nothing but Brexit for the next four weeks.