Ukip’s retreat leaves thousands of voters with a choice to make
Tory hopes raised by reduced competition
THE CONSERVATIVES believe the UK Independence Party’s decision not to contest every seat has significantly improved their chances of making a string of gains in Yorkshire at next month’s General Election.
Ukip will contest just 32 of the region’s seats compared to all 54 in 2015, leaving thousands of voters who backed it two years ago looking for a party to support.
In nine constituencies across the region where Ukip is not standing, the majority of the winning candidate in 2015 was smaller than the number of votes secured by Paul Nuttall’s party.
Across the 22 seats not being contested this time by Ukip, the party secured almost 150,000 votes in 2015.
The combined winning majorities of candidates in those seats was under 200,000 votes.
Recent analysis by Matthew Goodwin and David Cutts, from Kent and Birmingham universities respectively, suggested a third of those who backed Ukip in 2015 could move to the Conservatives next month.
A 33 per cent switch would made Halifax and Dewsbury likely Conservative gains with a 50 per cent switch bringing Scunthorpe and Wakefield into the equation.
Ukip is not standing candidates in Dewsbury, Scunthorpe or Wakefield, leaving 13,000 people who supported the party last time in those Labour-held constituencies looking for an alternative.
One Conservative hopeful in a seat where Ukip is not standing said: “I have spoken to plenty of Ukip voters who were Labour and are now planning to vote for Mrs May.”
But some Labour activists believe their Conservative opponents have put too much emphasis on Brexit with voters more likely to want to talk about the health service and schools.
Despite fielding fewer candidates at this election and slump in its poll ratings, Ukip leader Paul Nuttall yesterday insisted the party has a “brilliant” future.
He said: “I am confident that our poll ratings will go up as the campaign progresses but there are a huge bank of people in the North, in the Midlands and in working-class communities in the South who will never ever vote Conservative. Period.
“And they are not going to vote for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour because they see him as unpatriotic and they see him as unrealistic and a throwback to the 70s.
“These people will go out and they will vote Ukip.”
Mr Nuttall also signalled his determination to continue as party leader regardless of the results in the election.
He said: “I have got a lot of things to do. When I came to the job I said I would restructure the party, rebrand the party, change how it works, professionalise.
“This General Election has unfortunately come too soon for those new ways of doing things but there will be big changes at the conference in September.”
Ukip came was fewer than 8,000 votes away from taking Rother Valley in 2015. The party also secured strong second places in Rotherham and Doncaster Central.