Will ‘Team May’ tactics backfire at the ballot box?
A CURIOUS thing happened to me the other day.
As I painstakingly went through all the formal notices confirming the names of those nominated to stand for election in Yorkshire on June 8, I had this persistent nagging feeling that something was amiss.
There was the usual mixture of familiar and not so familiar names, surprise candidates such as former Respect leader Salma Yaqoob popping up in Bradford, a noticeable fall in the number of seats being contested by Ukip and the array of small parties that only come to public attention at election time.
But that wasn’t it. There was something else perplexing me as I waded through the nomination papers.
And then I realised what was afoot – there were no Team May candidates. No one standing for the Strong and Stable Leadership party either.
How embarrassing, I thought. The Team May party is touring the country with its leader asking for every possible vote to give Theresa May a mandate in the Brexit talks, but has forgotten to enter any candidates.
Meanwhile, barely a whisper from the Conservatives who, once again, are fielding candidates in every seat.
Theresa May has hardly uttered the word ‘Conservative’ in this election campaign. It has been relegated to the legal small print at the bottom of posters and even the side of the battlebus reads “Theresa May: For Britain”.
I think voters are smart enough to see what is going on and, in fairness, I suspect the Conservatives do too.
Because this is not really about fooling voters into backing the Conservatives. It is about helping those voters who would normally be uncomfortable about backing the Tories to feel happier about doing so. It is a campaign focused on those who have grown up in families and communities where ‘Conservative’ and ‘Tory’ are almost terms of abuse.
Even if Mrs May was facing a more formidable Labour opponent, the Conservatives would still be making this campaign about the Prime Minister, because they know the people who will decide the size of the Tory majority will find it easier to come to terms with voting May than voting Conservative.
And this strategy goes beyond branding ahead of today’s long-awaited manifesto launch. The Conservative adverts people are seeing on Facebook are personal appeals from Mrs May.
The Prime Minister’s language is carefully calibrated too. When she spoke in Harehills, Leeds, in the early days of the campaign, she asked traditional Labour supporters to “lend” her their votes. She did not want to challenge longstanding loyalties, but encourage that group to see this election as a one-off.
Where this strategy may come unstuck, if only slightly, is on polling day itself. There are no Team May candidates at this election, but on every Yorkshire ballot paper there will be “The Conservative Party Candidate”.
Tory HQ is hoping that the people they are targeting will have accepted that voting Conservative and voting May are one and the same. But is it possible that a reasonable number of those individuals will just not be able to bring themselves to put a cross next to Conservative?
It is that thought that is keeping hopes alive for Labour that the worst can be avoided on election day.
Yes, there are the deluded few who believe the polls could be out by 20 points and a group of silent voters will emerge to propel Jeremy Corbyn to victory.
Beyond them, the sensible majority in the party are resigned to losing but believe it is not too late to stop a drubbing. The possibility that traditional Labour supporters will recoil at the last moment from voting Conservative is one plank supporting that belief. Another is the organisational challenges facing Conservative candidates.
The snap election has left many spending valuable campaigning days organising volunteers, literature and events. In some cases they are facing sitting Labour MPs who have developed personal connections in the community.
And in a reverse of the Conservative position, Labour people hope that having the party name on the ballot paper, and not Jeremy Corbyn’s, will help salvage a few valuable votes that could be sufficient to make a difference.
YOU HAVE to admire the Conservative media operation for trying.
This week it pointed to the decision of the Greens and Liberal Democrats to stand down in several constituencies as evidence that the “coalition of chaos” is taking shape. Among the areas highlighted was Skipton and Ripon, where the Lib Dems have decided to step down. This is hardly the sign of an imminent political earthquake.
Conservative Julian Smith defended the seat with a majority of 20,761 votes two years ago. In fact Mr Smith polled almost 6,000 more votes than all the other candidates put together.
While I know Mr Smith will take nothing for granted, I don’t imagine the threat of a ‘coalition of chaos’ is keeping him awake at night.