Landslide for Tories – if voters aged 18-24 stay away

THE CONSERVATIVES could win a majority of more than 100 seats in the General Election if the difference in turnout between young and old voters mirrors the 2015 contest, figures show.

The findings come with time running out for people to register to vote in the election, with the deadline for applications at 11.59pm tonight.

New analysis has found that Theresa May might enjoy one of the biggest Tory landslides in modern history if people aged 18 to 24 stay away from the polls in similar numbers to 2015, when only around four in 10 voted, compared with more than threequarters of people aged 55 and above.

The projection by the Press Association of the result, based on the latest opinion polls and using demographic data modelled on the 2015 election, shows the Conservatives on 47 per cent and Labour on 29 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats on 10 per cent and Ukip on six per cent.

On a uniform swing across the country, these kinds of vote shares would give the Conservatives a majority close to 120 seats.

But if turnout on June 8 among younger voters rises to the same sort of levels typically seen among the elderly, the projection changes to a Tory majority of 60 to 70 seats.

Even if turnout rose to a notional 100 per cent among all voters aged 18 to 44, the projection still points to a Tory win, however.

The Press Association’s investigation also found that if turnout at this election was the exact reverse of that in 2015 and was highest among 18 to 24-year-olds, the outcome could be a Conservative majority of 20 to 30 seats.

All projections show Ukip winning no constituencies at the General Election, while the Lib Dems could make a net gain of up to four seats.

The study also found no scenario, based on current opinion polls, produces an outcome where Labour has a majority in the new parliament.

For Jeremy Corbyn to have a chance at becoming prime minister, his party would appear to need a much higher turnout among young people, where Labour support is strongest, plus a general increase in popularity across all age ranges.

Turnout among 18 to 24-yearolds at the 2015 General Election was estimated to be just 43 per cent, compared with 77 per cent of 55 to 64-year-olds and 78 per cent of people aged 65 and over.