‘ No clear evidence’ of change to pandemic, warns Sage

THERE is “no clear evidence” the trajectory of the Covid- 19 pandemic has changed in the past month, Government scientists have warned, as a raft of new data shows a rise in cases.

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies ( Sage), which advises Government, said the reproduction number, or R value, of coronavirus transmission for the whole of the UK stands between 1.3 and 1.5.

Last week, the group said the R number was slightly lower at between 1.2 and 1.5.

In a statement, Sage said there was continued exponential growth, transmission was “not slowing”, and added: “There is no clear evidence that the epidemic’s trajectory has changed in the past month.”

The rule of six came into force on September 14, followed a few days later by a 10pm curfew on pubs and bars and then a series of regional restrictions.

A new three- tier system placing all regions of England into medium, high and very high risk areas came into force on Wednesday.

On Thursday, a scientist advising Government suggested the restrictions so far had been “frankly useless”.

Yesterday, new data from the Office for National Statistics ( ONS) showed there were an estimated average of 27,900 new cases per day of Covid- 19 between October 2 and 8.

This is up 62 per cent from an estimated 17,200 new cases per day for the period from September 25 to October 1.

The ONS said cases were rising “rapidly”, with an estimated 336,500 people having coronavirus in the week to October 8, equating to around one in 160 people.

The figures represent a jump from 224,400 people in the week from September 25 to October 1.

The ONS has analysed more than 450,000 swabs over the last six weeks from the public, regardless of whether they have symptoms.

Ruth Studley, head of analysis for the Covid- 19 infection survey, said: “Our latest data shows infections continue to rise, with more than a third of a million people estimated to be infected – the highest levels we have seen since the survey began in May.”