Tory peer says party could have ‘vaccine bounce’ in May elections
THE CONSERVATIVES could be set for a vaccine bounce in May’s local elections, according to analysis by elections commentator and Tory peer Lord Hayward.
Those who have shifted most markedly towards the Conservative Party are those aged 54 and over, age groups most likely to vote in local elections, he told a Westminster briefing.
Lord Hayward said the Tories have opened up a “six or seven per cent” lead over Labour since the beginning of December, according to analysis of polling surveys from Savanta ComRes.
The two parties were “neck and neck” in early December, according to the analysis, which is when the UK’s coronavirus vaccine rollout began.
Lord Hayward said this movement towards the Tories started with the cohort aged 64 and over, with signs suggesting that this shift is now also being observed
in those aged 54 and over. The pollster told reporters: “It is quite noticeable.
“It was first of all the age group from 64 upwards that moved. There’s some sign now that the 55-year-old and upwards are also moving.
“And interestingly enough, they are the people who have received their vaccinations. So there’s clearly an element of vaccine bounce. I think it goes hand in hand – I don’t think it’s chance.”
A bumper set of elections are due to be held across Great Britain on “Super Thursday” – May 6 – including a number of contests postponed from 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic.
In London, there will be elections for the mayor and assembly, which were originally due to take place last year.
Across the rest of England, voters will be choosing a mixture of councillors, local mayors, regional mayors and police commissioners, with Scottish Parliament and Welsh Senedd elections also scheduled to take place.
Due to the coronavirus crisis, Lord Hayward said that overnight counting was unlikely as councils have indicated putting ballot papers into quarantine to minimise any transmission risks.
This could see counting start on Friday and continue through the weekend in England and Wales.