THE WEST’S THREATS CUT NO ICE WITH PUTIN
LAST MONTH I speculated upon what the Victory Day Parade in Red Square last Monday might look like and what President Putin’s speech might include.
I guessed that it would be a tubthumper with, perhaps, Ukrainian prisoners-of-war being marched past and neo-Nazi flags from the defeated Azov and Aidar Battalions being thrown on Lenin’s tomb as a triumphant echo of the 1945 parade. Well, that got short shrift from my retired colonel pal Sasha in Sebastopol, to whom I’ve been talking a lot recently.
Now, I’m not suggesting that The Yorkshire Post doesn’t have a long reach, but I was surprised to get such a stream of invective from him: I didn’t know that what I wrote was read in Russia!
Make no mistake, the Western press is hung over and dissected by Russians – it’s part of their national paranoia – but he demanded, “Why would we do such barbaric things?
“Prisoners will be treated properly: besides, such behaviour would dishonour the heroes of the Great Patriotic War when we defeated Nazism.”
He went on: “What’s this nonsense in your press about Russia declaring war on Ukraine? These are brother Slavs who have been hijacked by neoNazis: we don’t need a war like grandad endured to protect our own people.”
Now, it depends which account you choose to believe. You don’t need to listen with too much care to realise that the Western media is heavily backing Ukraine with some outlets pushing the line that even well defended areas like the Crimea can be retaken, never mind the precariously balanced Donbas.
Equally unbelievable is much of Moscow’s stuff: major embarrassments such as the sinking of Moskva have been clumsily denied whilst the current Ukrainian counter-offensive around Kharkov is skated over.
As always, the truth lies somewhere between the two.
And that’s why President Putin’s address was so interesting, because it was, by Russian standards, carefully nuanced. The parade marked the defeat of Nazism in 1945, a scourge that had killed millions of Russians and which must never be allowed to happen again. Yet, the crucial aim of his Special Military Operation in Ukraine, namely the de-Nazification of that country was only addressed obliquely.
Certainly, the fallen were honoured and attention was drawn to one Airborne unit on the parade which had just returned from the Front, but it was just as Sasha said, the focus was on the destruction of European enemies 77 years ago, not Slavs today.
Yet, it was not difficult to read the underlying message: conflict had once again been brought to Russia’s borders by the West; intervention in Ukraine had been inevitable not only due to that country’s actions in Donbas but, more importantly, by her aspirations towards joining NATO.
Furthermore, Russia had shown her fury in 2014 by annexing Crimea and rushed to support the Russian speaking people east of the Dneiper River, yet the West was deaf and continued to expand her influence. Where Hitler and his stormtroops once trod, now stood Biden and NATO.
I’ve often thought that Moscow makes the mistake of assuming that we listen and analyse their speeches and articles with the same enthusiasm that they apply to ours. But, I fear that missives and signals need to be pretty blunt to register on Western senses and whilst President Putin’s and his defence secretary’s speeches may have had some subtlety, there was absolutely none in the columns of troops, armour and thermonuclear missiles in front of them.
Here was the real message, stark, crude and clear: whatever the mistakes, sacrifice and misery of the past few months, Russia has the same blood and iron today that crushed Hitler seven decades ago.
And that’s why I’m so worried. There’s something in the Russian soul that seems to endure and, perhaps, enjoy hardship: a stubborn loyalty that makes light of tragedy and suffering. On top of that, strength is respected and that’s why, it’s often said, Russia’s a country that can only be successfully governed by a dictatorship.
With that in mind, I believe that the West’s played the Kremlin in precisely the wrong way.
As far as I’m concerned, it’s been absolutely right to challenge President Putin’s aggression in countries like Georgia, Syria and now Ukraine, even if that’s meant expanding NATO to contain him. But, that demands deeds not words.
So, the threat by Sweden and Finland to join NATO and complete the Nordic cordon surrounding Russia sounds tough, but may well be vetoed at the next summit in June. The same applies to the extra battle groups that have been promised to deploy to Bulgaria, Rumania, Slovakia and Hungary. They would sit menacingly on Russia’s borders, but there’s no sign of them yet, nor does it seem likely.
Similarly, Germany promised to re-arm then spent the last few weeks rowing back whilst, at the same time, Moscow is fond of quoting Obama’s ‘red-line’. This refers to the ultimatum given to Russia about chemical weapons being employed in Syria, promising some form of retaliation should they be used. But used they were and not a blind thing was done.
Lastly, the West’s cheerleader against Russia has been Great Britain. Our sabre has been rattled deafeningly: unfortunately, the Kremlin has noticed that we’re simultaneously slashing our own armed forces!
No: words cut no ice with Russians who, from Afghanistan via Chechnya, Georgia and Syria to Ukraine understand perpetual war and its use as a political lever.
The West may have sent weapons and imposed sanctions, but unless we back our threats with action, President Putin will continue on his own, bloodstained path.
Patrick Mercer is an ex-soldier and former Conservative MP for Newark.