Is blue wave enough to tip state Senate scales?
Democrats say cash, strong candidates will help upend the GOP’S razor-thin margin
One seat.
That’s all it will take to win or lose control of the state Senate.
With Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo the overwhelming favorite to win in November and Democrats poised to hold their supermajority in the state Assembly, the big question on Election Day is who will emerge with control of the 63-seat upper house of the state Legislature, which Republicans control by one vote.
Democrats in competitive legislative races across the country are anticipating they will ride a “blue wave” to victory, and there is an expectation it will carry into New York.
“We have one seat to defend and about a dozen that we can flip, and we only need to flip one,” said Democratic Senate Campaign Committee Chairman Mike Gianaris. “We’re feeling pretty good.”
Senate Democrats say they have campaign cash to burn, vulnerable targets and open seats to pick up, a stable of strong candidates and enthusiasm on their side. Senate Republicans are banking on stalwart incumbents, anti-new York City sentiments, a traditionally mild midterm turnout and their record in office.
Republicans know the national trends aren’t in their favor and acknowledge it
could hurt them “at the margins,” but they note that Democrats have been overconfident in the past.
“Two years ago, they were saying Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket was going to be the end of a Republican Senate,” Senate Republican spokesman Scott Reif said. “At the end of the day it comes down to the candidates.”
Open seats
The landscape in the state Senate shifted after Democrats easily won a competitive Senate special election in April and four Republican incumbents, including Kathy Marchione, unexpectedly announced their retirements.
A fifth seat also opened up in a narrowly divided Syracuse district that will be competitive for the first time in decades.
While Democrats enjoy an enrollment edge in three of those five races, the Hudson Valley race is a priority and they’re running their dream candidate in Assemblyman Jim Skoufis. He represents 40 percent of the district in the Assembly, outperformed Hillary Clinton two years ago and out-raised his opponent this year.
Democrats contend that candidates of Skoufis’ caliber only run if they think they can win.
Democratic targets
After losing by a margin of roughly one percent two years ago, Democrats are hoping a rematch against Republican Carl Marcellino on Long Island will go their way.
Recent results from the narrowly divided district are trending in the wrong direction for Republicans. Clinton won the district in 2016, after Obama lost it in 2012, and Democrats picked up an Assembly seat in that area during an April special election.
The largest Democratic enrollment advantage on the island is in a Nassau County district represented by Republican Elaine Phillips. The seat was hotly contested in 2016, with special interests spending more than $3 million, and Democrats could ride a blue wave to victory if turnout continues in their favor.
Gone are the days of the guaranteed “Long Island Nine,” but Reif said their seven incumbents have good records on the issues voters care about in Nassau and Suffolk counties — property taxes, education and the environment.
Issues, arguments
In defending their susceptible seats, Republicans are trying to run on a platform against a New York City takeover of the state Legislature. They’re presenting their candidates as the defenders of local interests.
“We’ve seen that that’s a winning argument,” Reif said.
In the Hudson Valley and on Long Island, Senate Democrats are highlighting President Donald Trump, reproductive rights, gun safety and the environment. They’re also talking taxes, which traditionally has been a Republican talking point, but has the potential to benefit Democrats due to the unpopularity of the federal tax reform adopted last year.
In a long-shot challenge to a Brooklyn Republican, the failure of the state Senate to renew speed cameras is a recurring issue.
Republican counter
The Republicans’ No. 1 target is Long Island Democrat John Brooks,
who they derisively refer to as the “accidental senator.”
His campaign was an underfunded afterthought in 2016, until his opponent’s father and the local Republican county executive were indicted on corruption charges. A race Republicans planned on winning by 30 points without much effort became a 314-vote win for the Democrats.
Democrats believe ongoing corruption in that area, Brooks’ voting record, and a major financial investment will be enough to ward off a return to Republican control.
Opportunities for additional Republican pickups in November are slim.
The Long Island seat once held by Republican Dean Skelos is considered safely in Democratic hands, and Republicans aren’t fielding a candidate in the Westchester County seat that was hotly contested in the April special election.
Their hopes for an additional pickup largely hang on a potential threeway race in Syracuse, a Rockland County upset or an October surprise that hasn’t emerged yet.
Capital Region contests
Three of the four races in the Capital Region are essentially afterthoughts for Democrats and Republicans because of the uneven enrollment in the districts. Democratic incumbent Neil Breslin and Republican incumbent Jim Tedisco are expected to cruise to re-election, although Republican Daphne Jordan, in a district that favors her party, is facing a spirited challenge from Democrat Aaron Gladd, a military veteran.
Republican incumbent George Amedore’s district has a narrow Democratic edge and Democrats won the seat by 19 votes in
2012. The election could be influenced by a race on the top of the ticket, as a majority of the district overlaps with the contest between U.S. Rep. John Faso, R-kinderhook, and Democrat Antonio Delgado.
A match in money
For the first time since they briefly held the majority a decade ago, Senate Democrats will likely be able to spend on par with Republicans this campaign season, after out-raising them through the year and fielding candidates with stronger-than-usual fundraising. The new dynamic could also be an indicator of which way the donor class in New York believes the political winds are
shifting, as contributions generally flow to expected majority members.
Unknown is how much special interests will try to tip the scales in competitive races with their own independent expenditures. The state’s teachers union and other labor interests, the real estate industry, charter school backers and business interests will likely spend more than $20 million this season.