GOP’s division over Trump little solace to the Dems
Midterm elections look ominous for Democratic Party
Democrats got another harsh reminder this past week of what the November elections could bring, which is to say trouble. With inflation roaring at a pace not seen in 40 years, intraparty Democratic debates about mask mandates and President Biden’s weak approval ratings, the fundamentals for the midterm elections continue to look ominous for the party.
That is the overarching reality even though the Republicans spent a good part of the week fighting among themselves. The GOP remains a party divided over former president Donald Trump, the 2020 election and what happened Jan. 6, 2021. They are a party with no clear governing agenda, yet they could be in control of Congress a year from now.
For several days, the big running story was the fallout from the decision by the Republican National Committee to censure Reps. Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Adam Kinzinger of Illinois for their joining Democrats on the Jan. 6 committee “in the persecution of ordinary citizens engaged in legitimate political discourse.”
No amount of spin by RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel or others about what “legitimate political discourse” did not mean could undo the unforced error — or tamp down the ridicule. It was a perfect controversy to feed an always-hungry media beast. Cable and Twitter gave it plenty of attention, though neither is representative of the broader electorate.
Democrats piled on the criticism of the RNC, but this was a sideshow to their main challenge of trying to persuade voters to look more favorably on Biden and themselves in the hope that they could turn around their midterm fortunes. For all that it said about the Republicans — and it said plenty about a party that has been caught in the undertow of the former president’s lies and obsessions — the RNC controversy offered only minimal opportunity to Democrats as a campaign issue.
Many political strategists say the RNC’s censure resolution is not top-of-mind for voters. It remains an inside-theBeltway issue that has not and likely will not break through to the typical voter. This is important because of what it signifies for the Republicans, but there’s scant evidence that it’s going to move many general election voters.
“It’s a national pundit kind of story,” Republican pollster Neil Newhouse said. “It’s not a story that average voters care about.”
The investigation by the House committee into the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol is something different. Revelations keep coming that speak to how determined Trump and his allies were to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Each new piece of information underscores the importance of producing the most complete accounting of events possible. The committee’s work will help to ensure
that happens.
But as with the 2019 report by special counsel Robert Mueller into Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, possible collusion by the Trump campaign (he found plenty of contacts but no criminal conspiracy) and Trump’s efforts to obstruct the investigation, whatever the Jan. 6 committee produces will be received through the prism of a partisan electorate. Few minds are likely to be changed by what the committee concludes in its report, however critical it might be for Trump and his acolytes.
Democratic pollster Jeffrey Pollock, acknowledging the head winds his party faces, offered a counter-argument about Jan. 6’s importance. “We know the general public thinks what happened on Jan. 6 is terrible,” he said. “We know there is a significant faction on the right that thinks it was normal. It’s those suburban voters in particular who find the behavior to be atrocious. That’s where the political implications are and why (Senate Minority Leader) Mitch
McConnell (R-Ky.) is trying to fight the fight of saying hold on. But he’s a lonely voice.”
He was referring to McConnell’s rebuke to the suggestion that Jan. 6 was either legitimate or discourse. “It was a violent insurrection for the purpose of trying to prevent a peaceful transfer of power after a legitimately certified election from one administration to another,” he said Tuesday.
Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, who also condemned the RNC resolution, said, “Anything that my party does that comes across as being stupid is not going to help us.” But will GOP stupidity actually help the Democrats?
McConnell’s comments highlight divisions within the GOP that will play out in primary elections this spring and summer. Democrats hope that those Republican primaries will produce candidates far enough out of the mainstream to compromise their ability to win in a general election. But hope is not a strategy. Biden and the Democrats know what they need to do.
It’s executing that is proving difficult.