Predicting the unpredictable
In tumultuous year in film, critic tries hand at gauging who will win Sunday’s awards
2021 was a strange, strange year. Sure, 2020 started it all, but it was kind of like getting hit by a runaway train as well as being a oncein-a-lifetime event. Last year kept the “party” going as a twice-in-a-lifetime sort of thing, full of ups and downs, wins and losses, advances and retreats.
All of which makes predicting this year’s Oscar winners – being given out starting at 8 EST tonight on ABC, with hosts Regina Hall, Amy Schumer and Wanda Sykes – even more difficult than usual.
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences hasn't had a banner 2022 so far either, mostly at their own hands. The hoped-for best picture nomination for “Spider-Man” never materialized. The Academy was then roundly ridiculed for its reaction, a Twitter fan favorite vote, and something called Oscars Cheer Moment, whose winners will be announced during the broadcast.
And then the organization alienated creatives and fans alike by banishing eight categories — including editing! and score! — to a pre-telecast ceremony before the ceremony, with highlights to be sprinkled into the promised three-hour show. You read that right, folks; editors will be editing in clips of winners, like best editor, accompanied, most likely, by some form of musical scoring.
Finally, on a personal note, 2021 was also the year I saw the least amount of movies period, let alone the eventual nominees, in all the years I’ve been making my annual predictions for the Times Union. Owing to that, we’ll be forgoing all the coulda-shouldas and sticking to some straight-up guessing, aided by historical precedence and number-crunching of prior winners this awards season. Ah, predicting the Oscars, the least exact of all the “sciences,” just got even un-exact-ier.
But just one shoulda before we dive in; “In the Heights,” one of my favorite movies of the year — joyous, invigorating and restorative for our senses and our psyches — was robbed! Of everything! Not cool, Academy.
BEST PICTURE
Will win: “The Power of the Dog ” Look out for: “Belfast”
Despite writer-director Jane Campion’s unthinking diss of goddesses-amonghumans Serena and Venus Williams during her recent Critics Choice Awards acceptance speech, the odds still favor her U.S. Western filmed in New Zealand to win. Much has been made of heartfelt “CODA”’s steady rise in the rankings, especially after this weeks’ Producers Guild Award victory, a precursor that has matched with the eventual Oscar winner 22 out of the past 32 years. In fact, only three PGA winners have missed out on the Academy’s top prize in the past 13 years: “The Big Short,” “La La Land” and
“1917.” But “CODA” didn’t earn nods for either director or editing, something those three did, at least in part. And only five movies in history have claimed best picture with no best director nomination, the most recent being “Green Book.” After the past few years we’ve all had, we’re not ready to be “Green Book”-ed again.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will win: Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog ” Look out for: Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast,” or Ryusuke Hamaguchi, “Drive My Car”
Campion, a previous directing nominee
and original screenplay winner for “The Piano,” is poised to become only the third woman to win best director, and the second consecutive one after Chloé Zhao for “Nomadland.” Even her own nervous, cringey speeches – see above – or Sacramento-born and Portland-raised “cowboy” Sam Elliott’s recent takedown of “The Power of the Dog ” is unlikely to change that.
BEST ACTOR
Will win: Will Smith, “King Richard” Look out for: Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog ”
It just seems like the right time and the right film for Smith to finally take home an Oscar, right? Even if no one you know was overly excited by the film. And as an approved-by-the-family biopic, it has all the unfortunate hallmarks of that subgenre. Smith would become only the fifth black man to win best actor, and it would mean defeating the second person to ever achieve that feat, his mentor and the person who infamously counseled Smith to not kiss another man on screen for the film “Six Degrees of Separation,” Denzel Washington.
BEST ACTRESS
Will win:
Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” Look out for: Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”
To call Chastain’s work in this film transformative would be an understatement. I think people forget how good she is until they see her performances. Her role as the late televangelist Tammy Faye Bakker shares some things in common with Will Smith in “King Richard”: both are based on real people; both roles as written come off as too sanitized for some viewers; and it’s the third acting nomination for both Chastain and Smith with no wins so far. In fact, Chastain is one of three historical figures in the category, with previous Oscar winners Penelope Cruz and Olivia Colman the fictional outliers. And after Frances McDormand’s third acting win last year, I think the Academy isn’t willing to go to that well again so soon and will give it to a firsttimer.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Troy Kotsur, “CODA” out for: Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog ”
This is where you’re going to see the “CODA” love manifest itself. He’ll be the very first deaf male actor to win an Oscar, and only the second deaf actor overall, after his “CODA” co-star Marlee Matlin’s best actress triumph for “Children of a Lesser God.” He’s already got a mantel’s worth of hardware for his performance – a SAG Award, a BAFTA, a Critics Choice, Film Independent Spirit and Gotham.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Look
Will win: Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story” Look out for: No one, really, but let’s just say Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog,” or Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard”
This is one of the only sure things this year, an uncommon occurrence when usually there’s at least two or three. And history is poised to be made — and will be — on several fronts. DeBose will win for Anita, the same role that earned her costar and EGOT winner Rita Moreno the Oscar. Fitting, too, because they were both the very best things in their respective versions. And as the first-ever openly queer woman of color nominated for an Academy Award for acting, she would obviously be the sole winner, too. If you haven’t seen what she (and that killer yellow dress) does with the opened-up rendition of “America,” you are doing yourself a major disservice.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Look
Will win: “CODA,” Sian Heder out for: “The Lost Daughter,” Maggie Gyllenhaal, or “The Power of the Dog,” Jane Campion
Again, heart is likely to win out here (see next category also). As with many winners, it will surely be reanalyzed and reframed in the future when sentiment is no longer a factor. If the Academy chooses this category to do one of its trademarked “spread the wealth” moves, it could be good news for writer-director Maggie Gyllenhaal. Side note: The three writers mentioned above are all women working solo, while the other two nominees, “Drive My Car” and “Dune,” come from teams of male screenwriters. In the first case, they took a short story and made a more than three-hour film. In the other,
they wrangled a behemoth of a sci-fi epic into just over two-and-a-half … ending with a “to be continued.”
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: “Belfast,” Kenneth Branagh Look out for: “Licorice Pizza,” Paul Thomas Anderson
This is the category where it could just as easily go the other way, especially with “Licorice Pizza” scooping up a lot of awards so far. Not to mention, both films are nostalgic period pieces set only a few years apart, although a continent – and worlds – apart. And Jessica Chastain and Will Smith have nothing on Branagh and Anderson; the writerdirectors have eight and 11 nominations, respectively, with no wins. Add in that this is probably the only shot either film has tonight for a statue. Taking all that into consideration, I’ll give it to the sentimental favorite, “Belfast,” because while both men mined their own youths to tell their stories, Branagh’s is more overt.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Will win:
Look out for:
“Dune,” Greig Faser “The Power of the Dog,” Ari Wegner, or “West Side Story,” Janusz Kaminski
“Dune” will probably dominate the headlines tomorrow as the most honored film, with a planet’s worth of technical awards. It all starts here. Firstly, two of the past three winners have been black-and-white movies, so that means giving it to “The Tragedy of Macbeth” might be seen as too much. And “Nightmare Alley” is beautifully and perfectly noirish, but its nomination is its award. Ari Wegner is only the second woman ever nominated as best cinematographer and would be the first winner.
BEST EDITING
Will win: “Dune,” Joe Walker Look out for: “The Power of the Dog,” Peter Sciberras
Not a lock, but it appears to be “Dune” and Joe Walker’s to lose here. If there’s some kind of sweep for “The Power of the Dog,” the swell could carry
Peter Sciberras. Buzz has been forming for Pamela Martin and “King Richard” — cutting tennis match footage is an art unto itself — but I just don’t see it happening.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: “No Time to Die” from “No Time to Die,” Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell Look out
for: “Somehow You Do” from “Four Good Days,” Diane Warren, or “Dos Oruguitas” from “Encanto,” Lin-Manuel Miranda
Billie Eilish won’t be the youngest winner in this category. The 20-year-old will be around three-anda-half years older than Markéta Irglová was when she won for “Falling Slowly” from “Once.” And like
her, Eilish has critical acclaim on her side. If Lin-Manuel Miranda had actually submitted surprise smash “We Don’t Talk about Bruno” instead, this might be a different story. Sorry, Lin, your EGOT will have to wait another year.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Will win: “Encanto” Look out for: “Flee” or “The Mitchells vs. the Machines”
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: Will win:
“Summer of Soul (… Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)”
Look out for: “Flee”
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM: Will win: “Drive My Car” Look out for: “Flee” or “The Worst Person in the World”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: Will win: “Cruella,” Jenny Beavan
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Will win: “Dune,” Hans Zimmer
PREDICTED WINNERS BY THE NUMBERS: “Dune” (6); “CODA” (2); “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (2); “The Power of the Dog ” (2); “Belfast” (1); “Cruella” (1); “Drive My Car” (1); “Encanto” (1); “King Richard” (1); “No Time to Die” (1); “Summer of Soul” (1); “West Side Story” (1)