California’s EV plan is built on fantasy

California has mandated that by 2035 all new vehicle sales must be plug-ins. A handful of blue states have fallen in line and copied the Golden State’s edict. But the idea that this can be accomplished without massive disruption is a progressive fantasy masquerading as serious policy.

Last week, the Institute for Energy Research released an analysis of California’s plan, noting that it is piled high on a foundation of dubious assumptions, most of which have little chance of becoming true.

State regulators claim “the state will have enough electricity supply to support an all-electric vehicle fleet of 12.5 million cars by” 2035, they write. “That surprises many since the state currently cannot even get through the summer/fall season without ... rolling blackouts because of inadequate supplies.”

The state’s conclusions, IER reports, depend on speculation that is unlikely to materialize. For instance, California will require 15 times more charging stations than it now has. In addition, solar and wind farms would have to be built at an unprecedented pace. Drivers would have to heed demands that they not charge their vehicles during peak hours.

Supporters of this pipe dream will protest that the Institute for Energy Research is an unreliable source because it has received funding from a Koch brother and is thus a shill for the fossil fuel industry. Yet such critics are silent when it comes to rebutting IER’s conclusions. In fact, many observers — including The New York Times and CalMatters — have also raised questions about the “challenges” the state faces trying to force the transition.

In the end, reality represents the biggest hurdle to California’s ill-thought-out EV plan.