Every Oscar prediction, all at once, for you
Seesawing of this year’s top seeds has our in-house fanatic reeling
After a couple of years of global unsettledness, is the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences doing its part to signal a return to normalcy by bringing back previous two-time host Jimmy Kimmel to helm the 95th Academy Awards – broadcasting live beginning at 8 p.m. Sunday on ABC?
Perhaps. Especially after last year’s progressive and successful triumvirate of hosts Regina Hall, Amy Schumer and Wanda Sykes was overshadowed by “The Slap.™” And whatever that socially distanced, train station train wreck ceremony in 2021 was.
But this year’s nominees and awards are anything but normal. I’m less confident about my predictions for the 2023 Oscars than any other in recent memory. It’s a safe bet that some records will be set or broken, but overall, safe bets might be in short supply.
If my numbers — see my totals for every predicted winner at the bottom — pan out, I’m foreseeing a shutout for a few high-profile pics, namely “Tár” and “The Fabelmans.” That makes me uneasy.
Look at the wild swings that have happened over the past few months, though. Frontrunner Cate Blanchett for “Tár” got overtaken by the groundswell for Michelle Yeoh in the early 2022 release “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” In Best Actor, momentum moved from Brendan Fraser in “The Whale” to Colin Farrell in “The Banshees of Inisherin” back to Fraser, and now … to Austin Butler for “Elvis”?
“The Fabelmans”’ best shots at victory truly herald a restoration of the old ways. If Judd Hirsch upsets in the supporting actor category for his veritable cameo, he’ll be the second-oldest acting winner ever, after Christopher Plummer. And the film’s 90year-old composer, five-time winner John Williams, could add a sixth, becoming the most senior recipient of an Academy Award in history.
Read on, movie fans. Then watch the show and see how on-the-mark or how wide-ofthe-target my picks were.
And one last note: the Academy’s newly installed “crisis team” may be able to prevent any potential “Slapgate 2™,” but if they allow 2022 Emmy presenter Kimmel to lie lifeless on the stage during a winner’s acceptance speech …
BEST PICTURE
Will win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” Look out for: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Seems a lock for “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” no? Funny, they said the same thing last year about “Power of the Dog,” and then … “CODA.” And about “Roma” in 2019, and then … “Green Book.” And most infamously of all in 2006, “Brokeback Mountain,” and then … (checks notes to make sure it really is what he remembers) “Crash.” Additionally, while “EEAAO” has been collecting the bulk of the hardware lately, the Academy membership does skew old, and the absurdist comedy-drama-action picture could alienate their sensibilities causing them to pick a conventional choice, and what’s more conventional than a war film adapted from a piece of classic literature? Still, I think “Everything” will end up getting nearly everything it wants at the Dolby Theatre.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Look out for: Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans” Not sure if two years constitutes a streak, but there will be no third consecutive female director win as all six nominees are men. And this year’s winner(s) is(are) almost certainly going to be American born. Other than Damien Chazelle’s win in 2017 for “La La Land,” that hasn’t happened since Kathryn Bigelow became the first female best director for “The Hurt Locker” back in 2010. So, will members go for The Daniels’ ambitious, audacious and outrageous “Everything Everywhere All at One” or Steven Spielberg’s moving memory piece, “The Fabelmans”? All odds are on The Daniels being an unstoppable force.
BEST ACTOR
Will win: Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”
Look out for: Austin Butler, “Elvis”; Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin” Not an undeserving chap in the bunch. And with all five being first-time nominees, a