Some Academy awards are too close to call
milestone will be made any way it goes. Plus, you have crowdpleasing backstories like respected veterans finally getting their due, comebacks of sorts and relative newcomers catapulting to the top. But despite the awards splitting happening at prior awards, Brendan Fraser is well-loved among his peers and with actors making up the biggest bloc of Academy voters, it appears that the erstwhile “Encino Man” will be taking home the little gold man. (Next, Pauly Shore?)
BEST ACTRESS
Will win: Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Look out for: Cate Blanchett, “Tár” Yeah, yeah, yeah, best picture is always the biggest deal, but this year the battle for best actress is the main card, primarily between these two ubertalents, Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh, especially with the multiple controversies that swirled around this category. There were calls for four-decade Malaysian action star Yeoh to win an Oscar for her role of multiple lifetimes in “EEAAO.” And then along came Blanchett in “Tár,” a raw, unflinching, unflattering and authentic portrayal. Since then, the two women have been neck and neck. It helps that there are questions about the placement of their three fellow nominees. Ana de Armas is up for the dark and polarizing “Blonde.” Michelle Williams is ostensibly a supporting player in “The Fabelmans.” And Andrea Riseborough’s little-seen turn in “To Leslie” landing a spot brought forth investigations into possible campaign irregularities. But really, the real issue is how fair a fight is this when people like Viola Davis in “The Woman King” and Danielle Deadwyler in “Till” aren’t even part of the conversation, not to mention others such as Aubrey Plaza in “Emily the Criminal” and Regina Hall in “Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul”? Back to Blanchett and Yeoh, though. You can’t go wrong either way among these powerhouse performances. And I believe first-timer Yeoh will ride the “EEAAO” wave over Blanchett snatching a third Academy Award.
P.S. Might it be time to create a new category for an actor who manages to rise above a shabby movie to give an exceptional performance, and perhaps name it after Margot Robbie? The 2019 nominee for “I, Tonya” appeared in not one, but two of last year’s biggest disappointments – both epic ensemble period pieces – “Amsterdam” and “Babylon,” and walked off with glowing reviews as the only good and/or best thing in them.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Look out for: Judd Hirsch, “The Fabelmans”
One of my favorite movies, “Network,” won four Oscars, one for best supporting actress for Beatrice Straight, who holds the record for shortest screen time for a winner: less than six minutes. And the majority of it is a searing and electric monologue. It was also vital and integrated into the movie. Can the same be said of Judd Hirsch’s less than 10-minute role in “The Fabelmans”? A previous nominee in the same category for 1980’s “Ordinary People,” Hirsch is unquestionably great and owns the screen, but what or who is he actually supporting other than his own Oscar campaign? Besides, can anyone stop the comeback kid Ke Huy Quan, and would anyone want to? And who would deny the former child star, who is practically “EEAAO”’s male lead and drives most of the action, another emotional, humble, charming acceptance speech?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
Look out for: Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”; Kerry Condon, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
I get that self-described Nepo Baby Jamie Lee Curtis is riding a high right now and everyone seems to love her. A win at the SAG Awards shows she’s got peer support and the narrative of the mature pro whose time has come. But you know who else is in this category? Angela Bassett. If there’s anything the Academy loves more than awarding a long-time vet, it’s doing it for a performance that’s among the actor’s very best. Bassett was fierce in the original “Black Panther,” but in “Wakanda Forever” her raw anger and heartbreaking grief sends chills down your spine and brings tears to your eyes. This is a Marvel movie? Maybe she should have won for “What’s Love Got to Do with It,” maybe not, but no question her time is now, and she’s the likeliest one to stop a complete “EEAAO” takeover.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell
Look out for: “Women Talking,” Sarah Polley
It’s not that this is the weakest of all this year’s categories, especially compared to its fellow writing contest, original screenplay. But it is one of the least exciting. All are definitely well made; there’s just nothing approaching a “Casablanca” or “All About Eve” or “The Graduate,” to name a few. While it would be impressive to give an Oscar to one of the great living novelists (Kazuo Ishiguro) adapting a Japanese film classic or fun to laud “Glass Onion”’s Rian Johnson for adapting himself, a modern redo of Erich Maria Remarque’s renowned antiwar novel seems preordained.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Martin McDonagh
Look out for: “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
I think Martin McDonagh is less of a lock to cut into the statue haul for “EEAAO” than Angela Bassett is for knocking out two supporting actress contenders, but I’m still giving him the slight edge. His only Oscar win comes from a short film and if the voters really want to show their appreciation for “The Banshees of Inisherin,” especially if all four of its acting nominations come up empty,
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
BEST EDITING
this is the place. But what about “The Fabelmans”? It has three acting nods, and it marks Steven Spielberg’s first-ever nomination for screenwriting. You read that right.
Will win: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” James Friend
Look out for: “Empire of Light,” Roger Deakins; “Tár,” Florian Hoffmeister
In lieu of it sweeping the top spots like it did at last month’s BAFTAS, “All Quiet on the Western Front” will have to settle for a few other important ones like cinematography. Its main competition is from “Empire of Light,” where two-time winner Roger Deakins reteams with his “1917” director, Sam Mendes, and “Tár,” lensed by Film Independent Spirit Award victor Florian Hoffmeister, whose best-known previous credit was the Johnny Depp comedy(?) “Mortdecai,” holding steady at 11 percent on Rotten Tomatoes.
Will win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Larkin Seiple
Look out for: “Top Gun: Maverick,” Claudio Miranda
The biggest toss-up of the night. Many people hope “Top Gun: Maverick,” called “the savior of the motion picture industry” by more than a few, will be the blockbuster audience favorite that finally justifies the Academy’s rules changes and expanded best picture slate to 10 nominees. They want the critically acclaimed action sequel to win best picture. Chances are slim that will happen, but it’s the favorite to win sound and it could medal here for its aerial sequences. But “EEAAO” had to edit between infinite multiverses. Hard to top that.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Will win: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio”
Look out for: Nothing, really, but for fun, let’s say “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On”
All five animated movies here are good, but a “Pinocchio” win is maybe the surest thing on your Oscar pool ballots this year. The real question is why this is the only category it’s nominated in: no production design, no score, no editing, etc.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Will win: “Fire of Love”
Look out for: “Navalny”
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Will win: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Look out for: “Argentina, 1985”
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: “Elvis,” Catherine Martin
Look out for: “Babylon,” Mary Zophres; “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” Shirley Kurata
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will win: “Elvis,” Mark Coulier, Jason Baird and Aldo Signoretti
Look out for: “The Whale,” Adrien Morot, Judy Chin and Anne Marie Bradley
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will win: “Babylon,” Florencia Martin and Anthony Carlino
Look out for: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Christian M. Goldbeck and Ernestine Hipper
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: Justin Hurwitz,
“Babylon”
Look out for: John Williams, “The Fabelmans”
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR,” M. M. Keeravani and Chandrabose
Look out for: “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna and Tems At one time I thought Rihanna’s moody and mournful “Lift Me Up” from “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” was the song to beat here. I mean, Susan Lucci, er, Diane Warren is on her 14th attempt, but “Tell It Like a Woman” isn’t going to be the movie that does it for her. Lady Gaga’s “Hold My Hand” from “Top Gun: Maverick” was released to much fanfare, but failed to, uh, take off, earning mixed critical response and peaking outside the Billboard Top Ten. And despite the efforts of the legendary David Byrne and indierock fave Mitski, “This Is a Life” was always “EEAAO”’s impossible win. And then along came the juggernaut that is “Naatu Naatu” from the crowd-pleasing epic “RRR,” one of India’s biggest movies ever. Still not sure how it wasn’t nominated in the International Film category, so a win here would be for the film as a whole.
BEST SOUND
Will win: “Top Gun:
Maverick,” Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon and Mark Taylor
Look out for: “All Quiet on the Western Front,” Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel and Stefan Korte
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Will win: “Avatar: The Way of Water,” Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
Look out for: “Top Gun: Maverick,” Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Litson and Scott R. Fisher
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Will win: “The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Will win: “Stranger at the Gate”
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Will win: “An Irish Goodbye”
PREDICTED WINNERS BY THE NUMBERS
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (5)“All Quiet on the Western Front” (3)“Babylon” (2) “Elvis” (2)“Avatar: The Way of Water” (1)“The Banshees of Inisherin” (1)“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (1)“Fire of Love” (1)“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (1) “RRR” (1)“Top Gun: Maverick” (1)“The Whale” (1)