Stakes high heading into debate

Cuomo and Nixon face off Aug. 29 to be Democratic candidate for N.Y. governor

Cynthia Nixon’s last, best chance to wrest the Democratic nomination from Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo could be the same opportunity that helped catapult his father into the post 36 years ago.

Heading into a series of debates in the summer of 1982, then-lt. Gov. Mario Cuomo was the underdog in the Democratic gubernatorial primary against New York City Mayor Ed Koch, whose formidable candidacy had scared away other challengers.

Former Associated Press Capitol reporter Marc Humbert said Mario Cuomo showed a depth of knowledge during the debates about state government and turned some of Koch’s previous statements against him. “He really created an impression that he was for real and he was the guy who could take Koch on,” Humbert said.

The road map to a similar upset is littered with more obstacles for Nixon, who just gets one primary debate, has less time to build momentum and is squaring off against a more battle-test-

ed debater.

Nixon and Cuomo will meet for their lone debate in Long Island, where they’ll share the stage for an hour in front of 150 people during a commercial-free broadcast on local CBS affiliates.

“It’s fascinating the current situation with Cynthia Nixon and Andrew Cuomo, because when it comes to gubernatorial debates, his father’s gubernatorial career was really made by debates,” Humbert said.

The agreement on the scheduled one-on-one matchup comes more than three months after Nixon first challenged the governor to a televised debate. Cuomo, who avoided a debate in 2014 against his Democratic primary challenger, was non-committal for most of the summer about debating Nixon, saying only that “there will be a debate.”

Nixon’s campaign accused Cuomo of ignoring two earlier televised debate invitations and then dictating the terms of the scheduled debate.

“CBS management has acknowledged that the only way to get Governor Cuomo to show up is by giving him everything he wants,” Nixon campaign senior adviser Rebecca Katz said. “We weren’t even given a seat at the table.”

Cuomo campaign spokeswoman Lis Smith called the complaints “another manufactured melodrama by Nixon.”

From a political perspective, it’s understandable if Cuomo didn’t want to debate Nixon. With a massive lead in the polls, an overwhelming fundraising advantage, and the Democratic establishment behind him, the entrenched incumbent may only stand to lose by sharing the spotlight.

“There is very little ground to gain if you’re like Governor Cuomo, in this case, with a healthy double-digit lead in the polls,” said Bob Bellafiore, who helped Gov. George Pataki prepare for his 2002 debates. “The person ahead always has the most to lose.”

The goal of a challenger, he said, is to “prod their opponent into some kind of gaffe or mistake or statement that their opponent would regret saying, which can help to undermine the leader and give the challenger an opening that didn’t exist before the debate.”

Katz said Nixon’s strategy is to present a stark contrast for voters, with Cuomo framed as the “corporate” option.

“The governor is running for a third term, so it’s about his record over the last eight years and our vision for a more progressive New York,” she said.

Smith said Cuomo is looking forward to a “substantive, in-depth debate about the issues that matter most to New Yorkers.”

Democratic consultant Bruce Gyory said it will also be on Nixon to demonstrate a depth of knowledge about state government, and to appear ready for the office and to pass the “gravitas test.”

Conversely, he said, “(Cuomo) needs to avoid coming across as a bully or arrogant, because (Nixon) has told everybody time and time again he is a bully.”

Cuomo, who has more than a decade of experience in public forums and fielding questions from reporters, will be balanced against Nixon’s acting experience, so Gyory doesn’t anticipate either would self-sabotage their campaign.

It’s unlikely that anyone besides the most ardent political observers or committed Democratic primary voters will watch the debate when it initially airs.

“In a debate like this ... most people learn about the debate from the coverage that comes after,” Gyory said, pointing to news reports and social media as the filters for that information.

While Mario Cuomo had more than a month after his fifth primary debate to capitalize on his advantage, there will be only two weeks between the debate and the Sept. 13 Democratic primary.

“The governor’s people have played this very well to their own advantage,” Bellafiore said. “Even if the governor was to make a significant gaffe ... Cynthia Nixon would only have two weeks to use it and it may not be enough to make any kind of significant gain.”

Because of the governor’s position in the race, Bellafiore believes the debate could have ramifications for Cuomo’s longrumored White House ambitions.

“A lot of people who are going to being paying attention to this ... are national Democrats, because they want to see how he performs against somebody who, while not formidable politically, has done improv and line delivering her whole life,” he said. “This is not Jimmy Mcmillan and Carl Paladino anymore.”

“People here are going to be looking for signals,” Bellafiore added. “Is he presidential? Can he handle a circumstance like this? On a national campaign, there are tons of debates.”

Cuomo’s last one-on-one televised debate was in 2006, when he squared off against Republican Jeanine Pirro in the race for state attorney general.

Those debates included a familiar refrain about releasing tax returns, as Cuomo urged Pirro to release 14 years of tax returns instead of 12, with his surrogates and campaign team this year calling on Nixon to release five years of returns instead of one.

“Only then can we have an honest debate about the future of New York,” Smith said.

In 2002, Cuomo faced off in a series of debates against Comptroller Carl Mccall for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. They agreed on policy, but Cuomo, the underdog at the time, needled Mccall on his tactics. Mccall won the nomination and lost the general election to Republican George Pataki, who ran as a two-term incumbent.

In 2010 and 2014, Cuomo refused to debate his Republican opponents, preferring instead to fill the stage with third-party candidates, which is a move from his father’s playbook.

After Mario Cuomo was elected in 1982, Humbert said, “You had to drag Mario kicking and screaming to get into a debate.”

With Cuomo prescribing the ground rules for his upcoming debate, Katz said the Nixon campaign expects he will be prepared. “I wouldn’t underestimate him,” she said.

But Katz also expects the debate will force Cuomo to answer hard questions on the spot, which has resulted in mistakes in recent months. She said the governor has found ways to avoid the press lately, including conference calls with state government reporters who were one floor away in the Capitol.

“The best part about a debate is that you cannot call into it,” Katz said.