Who will win
Oscar predictions ahead of the big night
2018 was a very good year for movies. There. I said it. I mean it. Cast it in gold and present it from the stage of the Dolby Theatre.
Don’t want to take my word for it? That’s fair. So here’s another way of looking at it.
What follows is a partial list of films from last year that did garner a single Oscar nomination between them: “Crazy Rich Asians,” “Eighth Grade,” “Leave No Trace,” “The Death of Stalin,” “Hereditary,” “Widows,” “Annihilation,” “Sorry to Bother You,” “Mission: Impossible — Fallout,” “Blindspotting,” “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?,” “Three Identical Strangers,”
“The Hate U Give,” “They Shall Not Grow Old” and “Wildlife.”
Not. One. Nomination. That’s a best-of list some other years.
And while commercial success doesn’t always line up with quality, this past year saw three of the movies nominated for the best picture Oscar — “Black Panther,” “Bohemian Rhapsody” and “A Star Is Born” — cross the $200 million mark.
In addition, it’s the first time since 2013 that the combined box office total of the eight best picture nominees topped $1 billion. Or should we say seven of the nominees? Odds-on favorite “Roma” mainly streamed on Netflix and declined to collect data for its limited theatrical run.
Here’s hoping that puts the final nail in the ill-conceived plan for a “popular film” category.
What of that august Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, then? What will its voters say about movie year 2018 when the Oscars are handed out at the 91st Academy Awards Sunday, beginning at 8 p.m. EST on ABC?
Lucky for you, I eke out a tiny part of my living each year predicting the answer to that very question. I climbed back up to a 75 percent accuracy rate last year after three years in the 60s but still have yet to reach 2014’s high mark of 83 percent again.
Here are my guesses for who and what will win, should win and more in the major categories. Check out blog.timesunion.com/ movies for the skinny on the complete ballot.
Best picture
Will win: “Roma” Should win: While it seems like it’s the slight favorite over “The Favourite” with critics and awards groups, “Roma” remains polarizing among general viewers, especially those who streamed it on Netflix instead of watching it on the big screen. But either way, it’s a work of art that will stand the test of time.
Watch out for: I hate
■ to even write this, but ... “Green Book.”
■ Could have been nominated: “Leave No Trace”; “Eighth Grade”; “First Man”; “If Beale Street Could Talk”; “A Quiet Place”
Best director
■ Will win: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
■ Should win: No political agenda intended, but Alfonso Cuarón’s well-deserved win here will be the fifth one for a Mexican director in the past six years, a string that began with his first win for “Gravity.” In fact, Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” win two years ago was the first for an American since 2009.
Watch out for: And that
■ dearth of homegrown winners, as well as recognition for his phenomenal talent and unrewarded legacy, could lead to a surprise Oscar for Spike Lee (“Blackkklansman”).
■ Could have been nominated: Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”; Debra Granik, “Leave No Trace”; Ryan Coogler, “Black Panther”: Damien Chazelle, “First Man”; Barry Jenkins, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Best actor
■ Will win: Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
■ Should win: I’m having a really hard time choosing between Malek and oncefavored Christian Bale for “Vice,” with a strong soft spot for Bradley Cooper in “A Star Is Born.” I’ll give the barest of edges to Malek here.
■ Watch out for: Bale, of course.
■ Could have been nominated: Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed”; Ryan Gosling, “First Man”; Joaquin Phoenix, “You Were Never Really Here”; Ben Foster, “Leave No Trace”; John David Washington, “Blackkklansman”
Best actress
■ Will win: Glenn Close, “The Wife”
■ Should win: I will not be anything less than pleased for undersung veteran Close if she finally picks up the hardware for what is a great performance, but I’m still all-in with Olivia Colman in “The Favourite.”
■ Watch out for: Colman and Lady Gaga, “A Star Is Born”
■ Could have been nominated: Toni Collette, “Hereditary”; Elsie Fisher, “Eighth Grade”; Charlize Theron, “Tully”; Emily Blunt, “Mary Poppins Returns”; Regina Hall, “Support the Girls”; Amandla Stenberg, “The Hate U Give”; Carey Mulligan, “Wildlife”
Best supporting actor
■ Will win: Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
■ Should win: If for no other reason, I’ll say Ali shouldn’t get this because of the ever-popular category chicanery. He’s basically a co-lead. Plus, Richard E. Grant from “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” gives my favorite performance of these five.
Watch out for: Sentiment
■ could swing this for Hollywood veteran Sam Elliott’s turn in “A Star Is Born.”
■ Could have been nominated: MICHAEL B. JORDAN, “Black Panther”; Josh Hamilton, “Eighth Grade”; MICHAEL B. JORDAN, “Black Panther”; Brian Tyree Henry, “Widows” or “If Beale Street Could Talk”; Dominic West, “Colette”; Steven Yeun, “Burning”; And have I mentioned MICHAEL B. JORDAN, “Black Panther”?
Best supporting actress
■ Will win: Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
■ Should win: How about a third-ever Oscar acting tie? Can we just have Regina King and Amy Adams from “Vice” share it?
■ Watch our for: Rachel Weisz is coming on strong late in the game for “The Favourite,” despite being ostensibly one of three co-leads.
■ Could have been nominated: Emily Blunt, “A Quiet Place”; Claire Foy, “First Man”; Tessa Thompson, “Sorry to Bother You”; Awkwafina, “Crazy Rich Asians”
Best adapted screenplay
■ Will win: Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel & Kevin Willmott, “Blackkklansman”
■ Should win: Team “Blackkklansman” all the way. One way or another, Spike Lee is going home with his first competitive Oscar Sunday.
■ Watch out for: Barry Jenkins, “If Beale Street Could Talk”; Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
■ Could have been nominated: Josh Singer, “First Man”; Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini, “Leave No Trace”; Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin & Peter Fellows,
“The Death of Stalin”; Gillian Flynn and Steve Mcqueen, “Widows”
Best original screenplay
■ Will win: Deborah Davis & Tony Mcnamara, “The Favourite”
■ Should win: This might be my biggest dissenting opinion of the night. As worthy and witty as the script for “The Favourite” is, and as warm and wise as “Roma” is, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t rooting for loooong overdue Paul Schrader to win for the startling “First Reformed.” This is the first Oscar nomination of Schrader’s career. The man wrote “Taxi Driver.” And “Blue Collar.” And “Raging Bull.” And “The Mosquito Coast.” And “The Last Temptation of Christ.” And “Affliction.”
Watch out for: Alfonso
■
Cuarón for “Roma”
■ Could have been nominated: Rafael Casal and Daveed Diggs, “Blindspotting”; Diablo Cody, “Tully”; Boots Riley, “Sorry to Bother You”; Bo Burnham, “Eighth Grade”; Hirokazu Koreeda, “Shoplifters”
Best cinematography
■ Will win: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
■ Should win: Alfonso Cuarón, “Roma”
■ Watch out for: Lukasz Zal, “Cold War.” Sure, black-and-white can seem show-offy and purposefully award attentionseeking, but both Cuarón and Zal are masters who utilize it with taste and artistry.
■ Could have been nominated: Michael Mcdonough, “Leave No Trace”; Bruno Delbonnel, “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”; Rachel Morrison, “Black Panther”; Chayse Irvin, “Blackkklansman”; Zak Mulligan, “We the Animals”; Linus Sandgren, “First Man”; James Laxton, “If Beale Street Could Talk”; Rob Hardy, “Annihilation”
Best film editing
■ Will win: Hank Corwin, “Vice”
■ Should win: Barry Alexander Brown, “Blackkklansman.” Forgetting about Brown for a moment, for all its real and perceived faults, some of the most thrilling sequences I saw all year were the song creation montages and Live Aid recreation in “Bohemian Rhapsody.” Why not reward that movie’s John Ottman?
Watch out for: Yorgos
■
Mavropsaridis, “The Favourite”
■ Could have been nominated: Alfonso Cuarón and Adam Gough, “Roma”; Tom Cross, “First Man”; Eddie Hamilton, “Mission: Impossible — Fallout”; Debbie Berman and Michael P. Shawver, “Black Panther”; Jay Cassidy, “A Star Is Born”.