New hurdles for redistricting process
Uncertainty abounds in 10-year action, including deadlines
New York’s once-a-decade legislative redistricting process has traditionally been filled with contention, intrigue and backroom dealing.
That process is beginning again, and this time will play out with new variables, including COVID-19 and uncertainty about a measure meant to make the process fairer and more transparent, according to witnesses at a state legislative hearing held Wednesday.
The redrawing of state legislative and congressional district lines every 10 years is based on the results of the currently ongoing, once-a-decade national census, which picks up shifts in populations within states.
For the first time, under a constitutional amendment passed by New York voters in 2014, a 10-person, bipartisan redistricting commission is charged with drawing New York district lines for 2022 and the decade beyond, based on those census findings. But the process is already facing unexpected hurdles.
Because of COVID-19, the U.S. Census Bureau has pushed back the timeline for releasing data from its current population count. Michael Li, senior counsel at the Brennan Center for Justice, testified that the census results would normally be available by March 2021, but now will not be released until as late as July 2021.
That months-long federal delay makes it “virtually impossible” that the New York redistricting commission will be able to hit a deadline of Sept. 15, 2021, set by the constitutional amendment, to release initial draft maps of proposed new districts, Li said. The commission is also required to hold a dozen hearings around the state on proposed lines.
The commission must then submit a final proposed plan to the Legislature by January 2022. If the Legislature does not approve that plan, the commission must release a second set of proposed maps by Feb. 28, 2022. But if the process goes on into the spring of 2022, Li said, it could create chaos in June 2022 legislative and congressional primary elections.
A number of witnesses at Wednesday’s hearings also questioned whether the new “independent” redistricting commission would be truly independent.
The 2014 constitutional amendment was intended to reform a process that had allowed the longstanding majority parties, state Senate Republican and Assembly Democrats, to draw their own district lines. But even with the new bipartisan commission, history could to a degree repeat itself.
As required, the new 10-person commission currently consists of two Senate Democratic appointees, two from Senate Republican, two from Assembly Democrats and two from Assembly Republicans. Two additional members still need to be chosen by the eight politically appointed members. These final two appointees, as prescribed by the constitutional amendment, cannot be members of a political party.
If the Legislature votes down the maps drawn by the 10-member commission twice, or if Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo vetoes the plans, then the responsibility to draw the lines would fall back to the state Legislature to amend the second plan “as it deems necessary,” according to an analysis of the process recently authored by a top longtime New York redistricting expert, Jeffrey Wice.
But Wice also wrote that because of the constitutional amendment, minority parties will likely play more of a role in this scenario. If the Legislature is under the control of only one party, Wice wrote, at least two-thirds of the members of each chamber must approve the plans.
Democrats hold a firm grip on the state Assembly, and Senate Democrats now hold a commanding majority in the chamber following the 2018 elections.
After the 2020 elections, Senate Democrats are expected to hold the majority for the first time in decades during redistricting.
State Senate Republicans are already expressing suspicion about the new, bipartisan process.
While this year’s budget allocated $750,000 to the Department of State to staff the commission, no funding has been released, and the commission has not hired executive directors.
At Wednesday’s hearing, Republican state Sen. Thomas O’mara questioned whether Democrats “want the commission to fail” so that the “legislative majorities can draw the lines themselves.”
Queens state Sen. Michael Gianaris, a top Senate Democrat, said he believed the funding could be released when the final two of 10 commission members are appointed. Gianaris also said the funding should be released in an “expeditious” fashion.
Under any scenario, new district lines will likely be more favorable to Senate Democrats than those drawn for decades by Senate Republicans.
Li testified that upstate New York lost significant white population over the past decade, while there’s been a surge downstate in the number of
eligible Black, Latino and Asian-american voters.
Democrat-heavy New York City may gain two new state Senate seats, Li said. A number of witnesses also questioned the lack of diversity so far among the commission’s eight current appointees. Only
one is a woman and none are Latino. Lurie Daniel Favors, general counsel at the Center for Law and Social Justice, called the lack of diversity “stunning.” The two commissioners not affiliated with political parties have not been appointed.
The testimony Wednesday was before the Legislative Task Force on Demographic Research
and Reapportionment (LATFOR), a body that’s traditionally been key in New York’s partisan drawing of legislative lines. LATFOR now faces an uncertain role with the advent of the bipartisan redistricting commission, but has maintained a sizable staff.