Booster backers cited study
DOH, Ualbany say shots still easing symptoms but breakthrough cases rising
The coronavirus vaccines currently in use around the U.S. are highly effective at keeping infected New Yorkers out of the hospital but appear to have worked less well in recent months at preventing infections in the first place, a new state Department of Health study found.
The study, released Wednesday and cited by top U.S. health officials as a factor in their decision to recommend booster shots, looked at infection rates, breakthrough cases and the vaccination status of adult New Yorkers hospitalized with COVID -19 from May 3 to July 25 and came back with both good and bad news.
The bad news? Cases are going up among both the vaccinated and unvaccinated, with the curve climbing faster for those who have not yet gotten their shots. Meanwhile, the vaccines showed declining effectiveness against infection over the nearly three-month period — from about 92 percent to 80 percent.
But the study also found that vaccines appear to be doing exactly what they were designed to do, which is prevent severe illness and hospitalization from the virus (data were too sparse to analyze death trends, the report notes). Researchers concluded the vaccines were 92 to 95 percent effective at keeping fully vaccinated New Yorkers out of
the hospital from May through July.
“The findings of our research are clear: Vaccines provide the strongest protection for New Yorkers against getting infected or becoming hospitalized due to COVID -19,” said state Health Commissioner Dr. Howard Zucker, who was a senior author on the report. “I applaud the research and work done by our scientists and continue to encourage all New Yorkers to get vaccinated as soon as possible.”
The study’s authors, who include researchers from the Department of Health and University at Albany, say it’s uncertain exactly why the vaccines are becoming less effective at preventing infection. But they note a number of factors that could be behind the change — such as the expected decline in protection over time, the relaxation of protective measures such as indoor masking, and the emergence of the highly contagious delta variant, which has a higher viral load than previous strains.
“At this important time in the epidemic, we’ve observed a clear increase in cases for unvaccinated and even vaccinated people,” said Dr. Eli Rosenberg, a lead study author with the Department of Health. “Yet these results demonstrate that compared to unvaccinated people, those who are vaccinated remain consistently far more protected against infection and hospitalization. Vaccines remain a critical tool for COVID -19 prevention.”
The state described the study as the first largescale analysis of COVID -19 vaccine effectiveness in the real world. Its results, which were published this week by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, are consistent with reports out of other nations showing waning protection against infection but strong protection against severe disease and hospitalization.
Its findings also explain why public health leaders are so divided over the question of whether booster shots are really needed at this time. Those opposed to boosters at this time say the low rate of hospitalizations among the vaccinated is the metric that should really matter when it comes to flattening the curve — and argue boosters are more urgently needed in lowincome nations. Those in favor, however, argue the overall declines in effectiveness against infection could soon bleed over to hospitalizations.
“Just in the last week we have started to see evidence of ... waning of vaccine effectiveness against infection — not necessarily against severe disease yet, but against infection,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky told CBS This Morning on Thursday. “And so in our process to stay ahead of this virus — we’re starting to see it in infection, we’re concerned we will start to see it in severe disease, and we’re planning ahead to stay ahead.”
President Joe Biden outlined a plan Wednesday to start rolling out boosters next month to fully vaccinated Americans who received their last shot eight months ago. The announcement raised eyebrows among some public health experts, as the CDC and U.S. Food and Drug Administration have yet to sign off on the plan.
An advisory committee that makes vaccine recommendations to the CDC is expected to meet later this month to discuss the issue.