New Computer Rankings Showing Flaws

Now that we’re fully into this 2012 prep football season, this might be a good time to briefly discuss — and this is a subject we’ll revisit again later — the new MaxPreps rankings being used by the New Mexico Activities Association.

MaxPreps is ranking teams for the NMAA, and the NMAA is using the polls — actually, it’s not so much a poll, since this is done by computer and has no human element — as one of its selection criteria for the playoffs.

In Class 5A, Rio Rancho is ranked fourth — behind Las Cruces, La Cueva and Manzano — while Cleveland is rated eighth.

Is MaxPreps’ computer ranking close? Yes and no.

I think Rio Rancho is the second-best team in 5A after Las Cruces, but the sloppiness of the loss to Goddard (huge turnover issues) probably merits a slip to No. 4, even if I believe the Rams would beat both La Cueva and Manzano headto-head. Besides, Rio Rancho has time to rectify that, starting with this week.

Cleveland is a larger mystery. And for comparative purposes, we will bring Valley into the conversation.

First, we should mention that the MaxPreps website says it does not take past seasons, or a school’s history, into consideration. It’s a computer-driven formula, which includes criteria like quality wins and strength of schedule. There are other criteria as well.

The Storm (1-2) is ranked No. 8. Cleveland barely squeaked by No. 19 Oñate for its only win, and the Storm was resoundingly beaten by La Cueva, 45-21 on opening night.

Valley, by contrast, has a better overall record (2-1) than Cleveland and lost 27-26 to the Bears. But the Vikings are ranked 14th, and Cleveland eighth? It’s hard to see how there could be that much disparity between the two.

What this so very clearly says is that the MaxPreps computer considers Cleveland’s other loss, an overtime setback to El Paso Chapin, as far more significant than Valley’s two wins, against Cibola and lowly Santa Fe Capital of 4A. To be fair, Capital couldn’t even beat most decent 1A or 2A teams right now.

Valley’s win over Cibola should count more than Cleveland’s against Oñate, based on MaxPreps’ own criteria. And the La Cueva comparison I’ve already outlined.

It seems a bit out of whack. But it’s still early in the season.

There are certain to be many more questions about this as we go along. At least we know this much — this ranking is probably as flawed as it was when coaches were doing the voting.

This week’s picks

The only reason I avoided an 0-3 performance last week was Cleveland’s late touchdown to beat Oñate 19-18. I went 1-2 — losing close games with both Rio Rancho, which lost 21-17 to Goddard, and Bernalillo, which fell 29-26 to Albuquerque Academy.

I am 6-3 through three weeks. Last year, I only missed four the whole season.

LAS CRUCES (2-0) at RIO RANCHO (2-1), 7 p.m. Friday: This is quite possibly a preview of the 5A title game in December.

The last time these two met was last November at the Field of Dreams in Las Cruces in the state quarterfinals. The Bulldawgs squandered a double-digit lead and lost 48-41 in double overtime. It was the most important win in Rio Rancho’s history.

Now Las Cruces comes to Rio Rancho for the first time, with a No. 1 ranking and a serious chip on its shoulder.

The Bulldawgs are huge, talented, experienced and motivated, a dangerous combination if you’re a Rio Rancho fan. Jonathan Joy has been a revelation at quarterback for Las Cruces, and everything starts with him. There isn’t a gamechanging tailback, but the Bulldawgs do enough by committee to keep anyone honest.

There are going to be a lot of very good players on the field Friday. The best of them may be Las Cruces tight end/defensive end Kamryn Dixon, a legitimate Division I talent. No way the Rams can match up with him physically, which is not a knock on Rio Rancho, because pretty much nobody can match up with Dixon at this level.

The buzz on the Bulldawgs during the offseason is how big and physical they are up front. We’ll have to see how Rio Rancho’s offensive line and defensive line handles this.

Can Las Cruces (which only played two games because the other, against Eldorado, was cancelled due to lightning) defend the pass as well as Goddard did last week? That’s something else to watch. Plus, will Rio Rancho’s offense clean up the mistakes?

If the Rams don’t turn it over, or keep the turnovers to a bare minimum, of course they can win this game. But that’s a gigantic “if.”

The Bulldawgs swatted away Cibola 48-8 last week, while the Rams had their chances to beat the Rockets despite the giveaways.

This is a gravy game for Rio Rancho. There’s little downside to losing, unless it’s a mercy-rule type game. After Goddard, nobody much expects the Rams to beat Las Cruces, including me. I am sure the Rams will use that to help light a fire under them Friday night.

But fire only gets you so far. G otta go with No. 1. Las Cruces 31, Rio Rancho 24.

CLOVIS (2-1) at CLEVELAND (1-2), 7 p.m. Friday: If you’re looking for the best matchup of tailbacks in 5A this week, this is the place to be. It’s Romell Jordan of the Storm and Kamal Cass of the Wildcats. These two and La Cueva’s Michael Rose are probably the three best in the classification.

I was surprised — as were many people — that Cleveland struggled so badly to beat Oñate. It raises a red flag, as it should. The Storm’s talent is far superior to the Knights’. But I wouldn’t want to read too much into one game. Perhaps it was a letdown after that tough overtime game the previous week to Chapin.

The Wildcats are not by any means a fancy football team, although they did show a bit of trickery — reverses, halfback option passes — last week against Manzano. But that was almost by necessity, since the Monarchs got Clovis in a 26-6 hole.

The Wildcats did most of their damage in two ways: special teams (Clovis had TD returns on a kickoff and a punt) and with the gifted Cass, who was gaining steam in the second half and was responsible for returning that punt for a score after Manzano’s punter was instructed to punt out of bounds rather than kick to Cass.

I’m calling this as an upset for Cleveland. Not a big one, but it would be an upset. The Wildcats are the better team right now, but they often struggle once they leave the Clovis city limits. Cleveland 29, Clovis 23. ST. PIUS (2-1) at BERNALILLO (0-3), 7 p.m. Friday: These two schools have a very long and glorious history as rivals — on the hardwood. They rarely play football against one another.

The Spartans bumbled their way through a close loss to Albuquerque Academy last week, and they really do need a win. Soon.

But St. Pius running backs Nic Stafford and T.J. Sanchez are just too much physically, I think for the Bernalillo defense. The Spartans’ best hope in this game is to limit the Sartans’ effectiveness on the ground, and force them to the air where St. Pius is not all that strong.

That’s easier said than done. Barring an upset here, Bernalillo’s going to have to wait another week for a shot at its first win. Besides, the Spartans have torched me twice already this season when I picked them to win. They’ve lost the benefit of the doubt from me. Now there’s just plain doubt.

St. Pius 35, Bernalillo 14.