How does the ranking system for prep p football rank?

Now that we’re fully into this 2012 prep football season, this might be a good time to briefly discuss — and this is a subject I’ll revisit multiple times before the end of the season — the new MaxPreps rankings being used by the New Mexico Activities Association.

MaxPreps is ranking teams for the NMAA, and the NMAA is using the polls — actually, not so much a poll, since this is done by computer — as one of its selection criteria for the playoffs.

The highest ranked of the West Side Journal- area schools is Atrisco Heritage, at No. 10 in Class 5A. The others have Volcano Vista at No. 13, Valley at No. 14, Cibola at No. 17, West Mesa at No. 18 and Rio Grande at No. 20.

The rankings tell us two things — one obvious, the other not so much.

It tells us that the MaxPreps rankings recognize what a down season it has been (so far) for West Side programs.

But they also tell us how fallible this system is, at least to the naked eye.

For example, I don’t think there’s a coach outside of Atrisco’s Patrick Johnson that would rate AHA higher than Valley in a list of 5A teams. Valley’s 2-1 is more impressive than Atrisco’s 3-0, despite the Jags’ opening-day win over Eldorado. (Me, I’d probably flip-flop those two.)

The MaxPreps website says it does not take past seasons, or a school’s history, into consideration. It’s a computer-driven formula, which includes criteria like quality wins and strength of schedule. There are other criteria, as well.

This week’s 5A poll is a bit of a mixed bag for me. I have no issue with Las Cruces at No. 1, or even La Cueva at No. 2 (although Rio Rancho is, to me, the second-best team in 5A, but the Rams’ loss to Goddard warrants some slippage to No. 4).

But take a team like Cleveland, which is 1-2. The Storm is ranked No. 8 in 5A. How can that be? Cleveland barely squeaked by No. 19 Oñate for its only win, and the Storm were resoundingly beaten by La Cueva, 45-21 on opening night.

Valley, by contrast, has a better overall record (2-1) than Cleveland and lost 27-26 to the Bears. But the Vikings are ranked 14th, and Cleveland eighth? It’s hard to see how there could be that much disparity between the two.

What this says — to me, anyway — is that the MaxPreps computer considers Cleveland’s other loss, an overtime setback to El Paso Chapin, as far more significant than Valley’s two wins, against Cibola and lowly Santa Fe Capital of 4A, which couldn’t even beat most decent 1A or 2A teams right now.

Valley’s win over Cibola should count more than Cleveland’s against Oñate, and the La Cueva comparison I’ve already outlined.

Another 5A team, Mayfield, is ranked sixth with a 1-2 record. Why? Because the MaxPreps computer surely believes that their two losses to a pair of El Paso teams don’t truly reflect the Trojans’ talent.

There are certain to be many more questions about this as we go along. At least we know this much — this ranking is probably as flawed as it was when coaches were doing the voting.

This week’s picks

I had another 5-1 showing last week, putting me at 13-5 (72.2 percent) for the season. West Mesa is idle.

VALLEY (2-1) at ELDORADO (1-1), 7 p.m. today, Wilson Stadium: This game is rife with possibilities, much like the Vikings’ matchup with La Cueva two weeks ago.

Eldorado is a real conundrum. The Eagles’ starters have only had six real quarters of work so far this season — three in the opener with Atrisco Heritage (a majority of the starters were benched for the first quarter), one at Las Cruces (the game was canceled in the second quarter due to lightning) and then two last week against Albuquerque High in a mercy-rule game.

Valley has already been through the grind twice, once with Cibola and once with La Cueva. The Vikings are one failed 2-point conversion from being 3-0, which is no small thing.

Eldorado’s defense may be the best Valley’s seen so far. But the Eagles have serious offensive deficiencies right now, and I wonder if they can win a high-scoring game with the Vikings.

I’m looking forward to this one. This will be my first look at the Vikings in person. Before the season, I had Valley going 8-2. One of the teams I thought would beat the Vikes is La Cueva.

The other was Eldorado. But now, this would qualify as an upset. Valley is definitely the favorite in this game and is playing the better football. But I’m taking the Eagles, who I’m betting are looking at Valley as a great way to get this season going. Eldorado 24, Valley 22. VALENCIA (0-3) at ATRISCO HERITAGE ACADEMY (3-0), 7 p.m. today, Milne Stadium: Tonight will end the Jaguars’ soft portion of the 2012 schedule, and they should emerge without any difficulty.

Valencia has struggled under new coach Kevin Jolley, with losses to Artesia (understandable), plus Moriarty and Rio Grande.

AHA wants to head into its bye week with momentum, especially because coming out of the bye, Atrisco gets powerhouse Rio Rancho two weeks from tonight. I don’t see any issues here. Atrisco Heritage 33, Valencia 14.

CIBOLA (0-3) at HIGHLAND (0-3), 7 p.m. Friday, Wilson Stadium: After watching the Hornets attempt to throw the ball on 59 consecutive offensive snaps last week against La Cueva — and not faring too badly — I almost wonder whether Highland will ditch its running game altogether for the rest of the year.

Look, Highland has a fine quarterback in Bryan Medina and several outstanding receivers, including Rashad Ortiz, so it’s not entirely out of the realm. And if the Hornets go that route, it’s going to be troublesome for the Cibola defense.

The Cougars, I would imagine, want to make sure their running game is sound on Friday. Cibola coach Judge Chavez loves to negate other teams’ strengths by running the ball and running clock. That’s the burden on the Cougars this week.

Cibola has been the more competitive of the two so far this season, which is why I’m taking the Cougars in a close game. Cibola 23, Highland 21. LA CUEVA (3-0) at RIO GRANDE (1-1), 7 p.m. Friday, Milne Stadium: This is the other easy call on the board this week.

The Ravens were off last week, but having an extra week to prepare for La Cueva doesn’t give Rio Grande much of an advantage, simply because there is such a disparity in the personnel of these two schools.

What could give the Ravens some hope is if La Cueva is missing star tailback Michael Rose, who suffered a high ankle sprain last week against Highland. I suspect Rose will not play this week, not with the Bears having a humongous road game next week at Las Cruces.

Even without Rose, La Cueva is still a clear choice. La Cueva 39, Rio Grande 12. ST. PIUS (2-1) at BERNALILLO (0-3), 7 p.m. Friday: These two schools have a very long and glorious history as rivals — on the hardwood. They rarely play football against one another.

The Spartans bumbled their way through a close loss to Albuquerque Academy last week, and they really do need a win. Soon.

But St. Pius running backs Nic Stafford and T.J. Sanchez are just too much physically, I think for the Bernalillo defense. The Spartans’ best hope in this game is to limit the Sartans’ effectiveness on the ground, and force them to the air where St. Pius is not all that strong.

That’s easier said than done. Barring a huge upset here, Bernalillo’s going to have to wait another week for a shot at its first win. St. Pius 35, Bernalillo 14. MORIARTY (2-1) at VOLCANO VISTA (0-2), 1 p.m. Saturday, Milne Stadium: The Hawks have already burned me twice this season, and I’m loathe to keep going out on a limb with this team.

But this is another game that is not so black-andwhite.

The Pintos were well on their way to a 3-0 start, leading Belen 27-0 last week. Then they collapsed, and lost 34-33 in overtime.

Who can say what kind of effect that might have on Moriarty come Saturday? The Pintos should come out angry as you-know-what, if they have any pride.

On paper the Hawks should beat a 4A program — even a solid one like Moriarty — but Volcano Vista continues to be a riddle.

As such, I’m off their bandwagon for now.

Moriarty 26, Volcano Vista 21.