Drought Likely To Persist Until Dec.
El Niño, wetter weather are slow to arrive in New Mexico
A New Mexico drought that is already by one measure the worst since the 1950s is not likely to relinquish its grip on the state until at least December, according to a new federal forecast.
Water managers had hopes for El Niño, a climate pattern that tips the odds toward wetter weather in the Southwest. But El Niño has been slow in arriving, said Dave Miskus with the federal Climate Prediction Center in Maryland.
“It hasn’t developed as quickly as they thought it would,” Miskus said in a telephone interview.
As a result, Miskus and his colleagues say we should expect New Mexico’s drought conditions to persist at least
through the end of 2012.
We are not alone, with states from California to Texas and north to Wisconsin all getting the same message from Thursday’s forecast.
Beyond Jan. 1, the picture is less bleak, according to the Climate Prediction Center, which develops the federal government’s national seasonal forecasts. The outlook for January through March calls for odds of wetter than average weather in southern and central New Mexico.
“El Niño is coming. I think we can be confident about that. That’s the good news,” said University of New Mexico professor Dave Gutzler, a climate researcher. The question is whether it will come in enough time, and with enough strength, to help our drought conditions.
With the state in the grip of two years of strong drought, water managers had been hoping El Niño would offer some relief, so Thursday’s forecast was disappointing, said Rolf Schmidt-Petersen of the New Mexico Interstate Stream Commission.
A dry fall and early winter would be especially difficult because it would leave the state’s soils parched. Low soil moisture acts like a dry sponge, soaking up the initial rain or snow that falls rather than allowing it to flow into the state’s streams and rivers, Schmidt-Petersen explained.
Reservoirs up and down the Rio Grande, normally a stockpile at this time of year against a dry winter, are at unusually low levels. Elephant Butte in southern New Mexico, the Rio Grande’s largest reservoir, is at just 5 percent of capacity currently, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.
The only exception is Abiquiui Reservoir on the Rio Chama, which is nearly full with water saved up in previous years by the Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Utility Authority. That stockpile means Albuquerque should have no difficulties meeting its water needs next year, according to chief operating officer John Stomp. But Albuquerque could end up being the only source of water next year if other users need help meeting their needs, such as irrigation supply or water to keep the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow alive.
The federal government already tapped this source of supply, with the water utility board this week approving a $1 million water sale to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation to meet minnow requirements this year.
The Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, which serves farmers from Cochiti to Socorro County, has only limited water in storage as a hedge against another dry year, said David Gensler, the district’s water manager. A bad snowpack over the winter of 2012-13 could pose difficulties for the agency’s ability to store enough water to meet irrigation needs next summer, Gensler said.
Eight of the 12 years since 2000 have been dry in New Mexico, with this year’s warmth creating the worst drought conditions since the 1950s, as measured by the Palmer Drought Index, a tool used by weather forecasters that looks at both warm temperatures and lack of precipitation.
But while the one-year Palmer Index measure for New Mexico is bad this year, it pales in comparison to the eight consecutive drought years the state suffered through during the mid-1950s.