Dems debate Clinton effort on Hispanics
Ex-ABQ mayor says nominee’s strategy is carefully crafted
WASHINGTON — Hillary Clinton is struggling to nail down Hispanic voter support, according to some Democratic political strategists, but former Albuquerque Mayor and Clinton fundraiser Martin Chávez said the campaign plan is carefully calibrated to deliver on Election Day.
As national polls show the race tightening and Trump gaining ground in as many as a dozen states, a front-page story in The Washington Post on Monday described some Clinton allies as concerned that her campaign is “doing too little” to galvanize Hispanic support for the party’s White House and congressional campaigns.
“While Clinton holds a significant lead over Republican rival Donald Trump in every poll of Hispanic voters, less clear is whether these voters will turn out in numbers that Democrats are counting on to win,” the Post reported. “Clinton trails President Obama’s
2012 performance in several Latino-rich states, including Florida, Nevada, Colorado and Arizona.
“That reality has prompted a flurry of criticism of Clinton’s and the party’s Hispanic strategies,” the article continued. “Despite a uniquely favorable environment with Trump’s repeated attacks on undocumented immigrants, Democrats are increasingly worried that the opportunity is slipping away to meet a long-standing party goal of marshaling the nation’s growing Hispanic population into a permanent electoral force. The concerns are compounded by Trump’s recent surge in several battleground states.”
In recent days, Trump has gained traction in Iowa and delegate-rich Ohio, where a Real Clear Politics average of six polls showed him leading Clinton by 1.8 percentage points Wednesday. The Real Clear Politics average had Florida tied in a two-person race between Trump and Clinton. The candidates were also running close in North Carolina and Nevada. But Clinton outpolls Trump in neighboring Pennsylvania by as much as 6 points based on Wednesday’s average. Nationally, the Real Clear Politics average of eight polls shows Clinton leading Trump by 1.9 percentage points, 45.4 percent to 43.5 percent.
Chávez served as Albuquerque’s mayor for three terms and ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate in New Mexico in 2008. Now living in Washington, D.C., Chávez is busy raising money for Clinton, working for a tech company and serving on some boards. And he insisted that the Clinton campaign “has been doing a great job” with Hispanic outreach.
“I’ve watched the campaign from the inside as it has ramped up its programs and hiring,” Chávez told the Journal. “They are remarkably nuanced and fully cognizant of the diversity of the Latino community from state-to-state.”
Chávez said the debate about Democrats and Hispanics and campaigning is “an old one” largely about how much Spanish-language advertising to buy and where to deploy it. The Post reported that Clinton’s general election advertising buys targeted at Hispanics have been smaller in scope and come later in the campaign compared with Obama’s 2012 effort.
“And the question of language has been a key spark in the debate,” the story said. “Until recently, much of Clinton’s television advertising to Hispanic voters has been in English, a concerted decision aimed at reaching bilingual households.”
Chávez said the Clinton campaign is adapting to changing trends. For example, technology and social media have changed the way Hispanic millennials are influenced compared with just four years ago, and certainly compared with eight years ago. He said Hispanic targeted advertising is “not lacking,” and in some cases such as in New Mexico, may not be necessary at all.
“In New Mexico, we only started using all-Spanish ads about 10 years ago since — like most of the country — Latinos were targeted in English,” Chávez said. “Indeed, some Hispanics take offense at being spoken to only in Spanish, with the suggestion being that we’re not fluent in English.”
A Clinton campaign official said there are currently no Clinton ads airing in New Mexico in English or Spanish, but the campaign has run one Spanish-language ad in the state and could run another on cable television before Election Day.
Journal pollster Brian Sanderoff said national Democratic strategists aren’t concerned about New Mexico because its House races are not viewed as tightly contested. Obama won the state overwhelmingly — by 10 and 14 points respectively — in the 2008 and 2012 campaigns.
“It’s been a very quiet campaign season in New Mexico,” Sanderoff said. “All the strategists are assuming that New Mexico will stay blue (Democratic)” in the presidential column
Meanwhile, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee — chaired by Rep. Ben Ray Luján of New Mexico — has been bullish on the prospect of picking up seats in the Republican-controlled House in November. Luján has repeatedly said Trump’s remarks about Hispanics and others will haunt him on Election Day and lead to Democratic House gains.
But the National Republican Congressional Committee took aim at Luján’s candidate recruitment this week. The NRCC cited a Bloomberg News interview on Tuesday in which Luján wouldn’t say it was “likely” that Democrats will retake the House.
“Perhaps Luján understands that he’s going to have some explaining to do in November for the DCCC’s utter failure at recruitment in districts across the country, and he doesn’t want to raise expectations,” an NRCC news release said.
DCCC spokeswoman Meredith Kelly disputed the Republicans’ assertion and stressed that Luján is confident Democrats will gain seats in the House. She also said the DCCC is not focusing as heavily on districts where Democratic strength has waned, and instead are recruiting in other areas, especially urban districts.
Kelly said the battlegrounds have shifted.
“The DCCC has capitalized on Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity and recruited stellar candidates in suburban, diverse, young and welleducated districts that are becoming more Democratic each day,” she said. “It’s too early to predict how many, but Democrats will pick up a significant number of seats, and Republicans know it.”