MWC may have lots of plot twists
Noise wasn’t made. Résumès weren’t built. The only notice the college basketball world took of the Mountain West during nonconference play was that, for the second consecutive season, it looked the part of a league that deserves just one team in the NCAA Tournament.
But there still should be plenty of intrigue over the next 10 weeks.
What might be more apparent than ever as the 18-game league schedule begins tonight — every team will feel it has a shot against any other league team on any given night.
The gap between the top and the bottom of the league is as close as ever, and predicting what might happen is a fool’s game.
But who am I to pass up a shot at looking a fool?
The favorites
Nevada and San Diego State, the teams picked 1-2 in the preseason, are still there. But neither should feel like a lock.
Sure, Nevada (11-2) racked up plenty of wins, but it is one of only three MWC teams that didn’t beat at least one team rated ahead of it in the KenPom ratings. And with starting forward Elijah Foster indefinitely suspended, a team with already limited depth has lost all wiggle room for injury or slumps.
SDSU (8-4), the perennial contender, is again a team with a limited offense. The Aztecs’ 42.5 percent shooting ranks 10th in the 11-team league.
Contenders
As noted, there isn’t much of a gap between the top and bottom of the league. So more can fit in this category, but I’ll limit the “contenders” in my second tier to three: Boise State (7-4), New Mexico (7-5) and Wyoming (10-3).
The good news for all three of these teams is that if things go right, each has the pieces to win a title.
The bad news is all three look vulnerable to various hiccups that could prevent them for cutting down nets in March.
Surprise team
For those who somehow forgot what my preseason ballot looked like, I picked the Wyoming Cowboys (103) dead last in a mediocre league.
Not only was I wrong, I’d now be shocked if they aren’t at least a top-five finisher.
First-year head coach Allen Edwards and fellow holdover assistant Jeremy Shyatt, a former Albuquerque resident, have transformed a slow, methodical Cowboys team that lost in the play-in round of last season’s MWC tournament into a balanced, high-scoring team that seems to be getting only better.
The biggest surprise, aside from the wins, is that they’re playing an entirely different style and plan to use Laramie’s 7,200 feet elevation to their benefit. After having an average national ranking of 332 in tempo in five years under Larry Shyatt, Wyoming is now running like crazy and ranked ninth (out of 351) in tempo.
Surprise player
Wyoming junior Hayden Dalton has started only once, but last week alone had three double-doubles and is averaging 12.4 points, 8.6 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game. Last year those averages were 3.8, 3.3, 1.0.
Biggest disappointment
The Lobos take the cake here.
Yes, they were picked third in the preseason media poll and still might be the third best team in the league. But it’s hard not to understand why they’ve failed to meet expectations.
With four returning starters, two preseason all-league picks and hearing for the past couple seasons that this would be the year, the 7-5 Lobos haven’t lived up to the hype.
The assumption was the departure of Cullen Neal would be best for all parties, but the reality is there are still chemistry issues, and now the team lacks a consistent third scorer to take pressure off Elijah Brown and Tim Williams.
They can still win the league, but is anyone outside of their locker room really predicting that right now?