Lobos are falling short in the clutch
Failure to convert on 3rd down a key
Sometimes statistics lie. Sometimes they tell the truth.
Sometimes it seems as if they’re just messing with us.
Friday at Dreamstyle Stadium, in New Mexico’s 27-24 loss to Colorado State, the Lobos were 2-of-12 on third-down conversions. The Rams were 7-of-15.
Colorado State coach Mike Bobo called the disparity in third-down conversions the key to the game.
And yet, CSU punted five times, UNM only three. Huh?
Really, though, this apparent anomaly is easily explained.
Simply put, the Lobos didn’t finish.
Of the 10 third-down situations the UNM failed to convert, seven occurred on the CSU side of the 50-yard line.
It should be noted that twice UNM converted on fourth down — including the 12-yard Tevaka Tuioti-to-Aaron Molina pass that drew the Lobos to within three points and gave the Lobos
a chance to win in the waning moments or send the game to overtime.
But after cornerback Jalin Burrell recovered Jason Sanders’ onside kick, Tuioti was sacked on fourth down — after throwing incomplete on a third-and-4 from the CSU 47. Game over.
“I think, most of all, we’ve got to finish,” Tuioti said during postgame interviews. “... We’re driving the ball down and we’d make a couple of good plays, and then it would just turn around for us.
“So I think most, the learning experience from this game is just to finish.”
Failure to convert on third down, though, has been a season-long problem for the Lobos. Entering Friday’s game, they ranked 12th in the Mountain West Conference and 127th in the nation, two spots from the bottom, in that category.
That’s a major reason UNM ranked significantly higher in total offense (sixth MWC, 57th nationally) than in scoring offense (ninth, 88th).
ADJUSTING THE SIGHTS: Friday’s loss dropped the Lobos, 3-4 overall, to 1-3 in Mountain West play. With Colorado State already at 4-0, and with the winner of Saturday’s late Boise State-Wyoming game going to 3-0, UNM’s chances to repeat as a Mountain Division tri-champion are virtually nil.
Coach Bob Davie acknowledged as much after the game, saying the attainable goal now is six wins or more and a third consecutive bowl bid.
Even that goal, in light of the remaining schedule, looms as a challenge.
As of now, the Lobos would be decided underdogs in road games at Texas A&M (Nov. 11) and San Diego State (Nov. 24). They likely would be favored, though not by much, in home games against Utah State (Nov. 4) and UNLV (Nov. 17).
The Lobos have won three straight games against Wyoming, but it’s unlikely they’ll be favorites to win in Laramie this Saturday.
Regardless, despite an ultimately disappointing outcome, cornerback D’Angelo Ross said there’s plenty of encouragement to take out of the CSU game moving forward.
“With a loss like this, it makes you feel like, ‘What more could I have done?’” he said. “But I’ve just got to be satisfied with what happened, watch the film and get better.”
THE LATE SHOW: Without discounting other factors, it appears the 8:21 p.m. start was primarily responsible for the paltry attendance at Friday’s game.
The announced attendance of 17,358 was the lowest of the season, but two home games last fall — Nevada (17,290) and Wyoming (16,698) drew fewer. Both were post-8 p.m. starts.
This is the trade-off the Mountain West signed up for: more TV money, fewer fannies in the seats. Speaking of which ... CHA-CHING: The Mountain West’s television bonus system is still in place, but has been revised this year because of inequities in the past.
Previously, Mountain West teams that appeared on ESPN, ESPN2 or the major broadcast networks on a Saturday received a bonus of $500,000. Weeknight games (Thursday, Friday) triggered a bonus of $300,000. Friday’s UNM-CSU game was aired on ESPN2.
Because not all teams got the same number of qualifying games, some schools got significantly more bonus money than others in a given year.
This year, the system has been restructured to spread the wealth equally — except in the case of Boise State, which gets more money as a result of the league’s successful efforts to keep the Broncos from bolting to the Big East in 2013.
As reported earlier this year by the Idaho Statesman, 10 Mountain West teams (Hawaii has its own TV deal) are to receive approximately $1.1 million from the conference. Boise State will receive that amount plus another $1.8 million from ESPN.