Record holiday travel forecast, despite gas prices
New Mexico motorists to pay 70 cents more per gallon this year
New Mexico motorists will pay about 70 cents more per gallon of gas this July 4 compared with last year’s holiday, but it’s not discouraging travelers from hitting the road.
AAA New Mexico estimates a record 2.8 million Mountain Region residents will drive more than 50 miles from home this July 4, a 5.6 percent increase over last year and the highest number of holiday road travelers since AAA began collecting such data 18 years ago.
Overall, 3.5 million regional revelers will travel by plane, train, car or cruise this year, reflecting robust consumer demand as the country’s economy continues to improve.
“Whether it’s on the roads, in the skies, by rail or waterways, our region and nation will see record travel volume this Independence Day,” said Ana Gonzalez, regional manager with AAA New Mexico, in a statement. “A strong economy is allowing for consumers to take advantage of more opportunities to travel this holiday, contributing to an already busy summer travel season.”
Nationwide, AAA estimates nearly 40 million Americans will drive more than 50 miles from home. And the Transportation Security Administration projects 28 million passengers and crew members will fly between now and Monday, July 9.
Such robust consumer demand is helping keep gasoline prices up, despite record domestic oil production and a new agreement by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to raise their collective output by 1 million barrels per day.
Crude prices for U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate hit $74 a barrel on Friday, up about $9 from last week’s $65.50 a barrel, said Dan McTeague, senior petroleum analyst with GasBuddy, a Boston-based organization that tracks gasoline prices nationwide.
“The upward price trajectory reflects concern that even though OPEC agreed to increase production, it won’t be enough to replace declining output from Venezuela, nor offset an expected drop in oil exports from Iran following the renewal of U.S. sanctions,” McTeague said. “In addition, people are taking to the road in record numbers, doing more driving and consuming more gasoline, which is lowering domestic fuel inventories.”
The country’s crude stockpiles declined by 9.9 million barrels last week – the largest such single-week drop since 2016, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. And, despite U.S. production reaching an all-time record of 10.9 million barrels a day this month, oil exports have risen markedly, reaching 3 million barrels last week for the first time.
Taken together, those factors have kept pump prices up, said AAA New Mexico spokesman Doug Shupe. New Mexico’s average price did decline 8 cents from its peak of $2.97 per gallon of unleaded regular since Memorial Day weekend. But New Mexicans are still paying on average about $9 more per fill up than this time last year.
“With increased demand heading into the holiday, we expect prices to move slightly higher again,” Shupe said. “Upward pressure could continue through the summer as people continue to take vacations, at least until September, when prices typically begin to come down.”