RENDON TO GET RICH, OR RICHER?

World Series champion Washington, and others, are calculating how much star Anthony Rendon is worth.

Baseball’s business season got underway immediately after the Washington Nationals won the World Series last week, and perhaps no name will be the subject of more speculation than newly minted champion, and free agent third baseman, Anthony Rendon.

Rendon is coming off a dream season, the best of his seven-year career. He set career highs in home runs (34), batting average (.319), on-base percentage (.412) and slugging percentage (.598), creating runs at a rate that was 54% higher than average after taking into account league and park effects. Only the Houston Astros’ and Albuquerque native Alex Bregman was better (68% higher than average) among third basemen who qualified for the batting title.

Rendon was also clutch in the playoffs. He went 20 for 61 (.328) with three home runs during the championship run and helped his team score eight more runs than you would expect given the men on base and outs left in the inning of each of his postseason plate appearances.

There won’t be many free agent third basemen on the market. According to Dan Szymborski’s 2020 ZiPS projections, not only is Rendon expected to be the best-performing player from this group, he is expected to be the best-performing free agent available among all positional players.

The Nationals offered the 29-year-old a seven-year contract in the range of $210 million to $215 million in September, but that deal included deferral payments to be paid seven years after the contract expires. If that is the case, this offer is significantly below market value for two reasons.

The first is any deferred payments, no matter the time frame, lower the present-day value of the contract. If we use a simple discount rate of 2.2%, the expected rate of inflation from 2020 to 2024, and split the money evenly over a 14-year period (and only discount the second half of the 14 years, not the first), the present-day value of Washington’s offer to Rendon is approximately $192 million, a sizable difference from the high end of the raw total reportedly offered.

The second reason is the eightyear, $260 million contract extension that the Colorado Rockies and their all-star third baseman, Nolan Arenado, agreed to in February. Since 2013, the year Rendon and Arenado made their major league debuts, Rendon has been as productive as Arenado, with Rendon worth more than one win above replacement more than Arenado over that span. Arenado has racked up more hardware — this week, he beat out Rendon for his seventh straight Gold Glove.

It doesn’t take a mathematician to know a career year followed by postseason success and a World Series ring is going to add up to a huge payday for Rendon. The only question: What is fair value for Rendon on a multiyear deal?

As The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty reported this weekend: “Arenado’s average annual value (is) $32.5 million. The Nationals’ latest offer put Rendon right around $30 million. If Washington bumps that up to $35 million, a person with knowledge of negotiations believes a deal could get done.”

UNION: Two days into the free agent market, the players’ association already is angry at a club.

Union head Tony Clark issued a statement Wednesday in response to remarks attributed to Atlanta Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos during a conference call with media.

“Every day you get more information. And we’ve had time to connect with 27 of the clubs — obviously the Astros and (Nationals) being in the World Series, they were tied up — but we had a chance to get a sense of what the other clubs are going to look to do in free agency, who might be available in trades,” Anthopoulos said, according to the union.

Baseball’s labor contract prohibits clubs from acting in concert in free agent negotiations. The union filed a collusion grievance following the 2017-18 offseason.

“The statements made by Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos call into the question the integrity of the entire free-agent system,” Clark said in a statement Wednesday. “The clear description of club coordination is egregious, and we have launched an immediate investigation looking into the matter.”

GIANTS: The team has narrowed its search for a new manager to three finalists, The Associated Press reported. Former Phillies manager Gape Kapler, Astros bench coach Joe Espada and Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro are the final three vying to replace Bruce Bochy.

CUBS: After missing the postseason for the first time in five seasons in 2019, season ticket holders will see an average price decrease of about 2.5% next year, according to the team. Cale Vennum, vice president of ticketing, said the decrease, which ranges from 6.5% for some sections to a slight increase for others, has more to do with the added early-season home games than the Cubs’ failure to make the postseason.

According to Team Marketing Report, the Cubs had the highest average non-premium ticket price in the majors in 2019 at $59.49. The small capacity at Wrigley Field and high demand typically have the Cubs in the top three teams of ticket prices, along with the Red Sox and Yankees.

“It’s really the market dictating the price,” Vennum said. “People are telling us they really want to come to Cubs games and they value them really, really highly.”

The Cubs in 2019 averaged 38,208 per game, a slight drop-off from 2018 but a 4.3% decline from 2016, when the Cubs won their first championship in 108 years.