Luck was on the Lobos’ side in win over Aggies
Weir says team was fortunate to beat New Mexico State
Good teams win close games, right? Fans of winning teams of close games like that notion, but fans on the other side of the coin are quick to point to other factors that played into the outcome.
Those who take a more stats-based, analytics approach to the game will tell you any team getting into enough onepossession games will probably win about as many as they lose. There are simply too many variables that can’t be controlled by even the best of teams in the final seconds of game to read too much into the outcomes of close games — a bounce here, a rebound there, a made shot against good defense, a missed open 3-pointer that usually goes in.
In the past four days the UNM Lobos (5-1) found themselves on both ends of a one-possession game — a loss at UTEP that went down to the final shot and a win at NMSU that went down to the final shot.
“We’re very fortunate to get a win,” Lobos coach Paul Weir said after Thursday’s 78-77 win over NMSU in Las Cruces, ending a five-game win streak by the Aggies. “It’s a one-possession game. Those one-possession games can go either
way, make you feel a lot better about yourself or sometimes a lot worse about yourself.”
Stats guru Ken Pomeroy has a rating on his website, KenPom. com, called “Luck,” which, as he defines it, “is the deviation in winning percentage between a team’s actual record and their expected record.”
Right now, as the Lobos have had two close games go both ways, their luck rating is, understandably, in the middle at 150 out of 353 Division I teams. Which, whether they understand the luck metric or not, most Lobo fans probably like seeing the uptick after last season’s 253rd ranking or the 236 mark from two years ago.
At UTEP on Tuesday, Zane Martin put the Lobos up 63-62 with a dunk in the final minute. With 27 seconds left, UTEP’s Jordan Lathon gave the Miners a 64-63 lead with a 17-foot jumper over 6-foot-9 Corey Manigault. UNM then missed a 3 on the next possession from its second best 3-point shooter (Makuach Maluach) and a JaQuan Lyle made half-court shot at the buzzer was a determined to have left his hand a fraction of a second too late.
The result? A one-possession Lobo loss.
Thursday at NMSU, the Lobos took a 78-77 lead with 49 seconds left on two Carlton Bragg free throws before some of the wildest, ugliest and improbable final 29 seconds of a game the Rio Grande Rivalry has ever seen with four turnovers, two missed 3-pointers and a missed free throw.
“I thought it was a very clean look,” NMSU coach Chris Jans said of a wide-open Jabari Rice 3-point try from the corner that rimmed out. “I thought it was going in. Unfortunately it didn’t.”
Since the 2007-08 season, the past three Lobos coaches have coached in a remarkably similar percentage of one-possession (3-points or less) games and, for the most part, have similar results hovering around the .500 mark in those games.
16.7 percent of the 72 games Weir has coached since the 201718 season resulted in a one-possession outcome, with the Lobos going 5-7.
16.4 percent of the 128 games Craig Neal coached from 201314 through 2016-17 resulted in a one-possession outcome with the Lobos going 10-11.
16.9 percent of the 207 games Steve Alford coached from 200708 through 2012-13 resulted in a one-possession outcome, with the Lobos going 19-16.
In Weir’s first 15 games at UNM, the Lobos went 0-3 in one-possession games, all against NCAA Tournament teams.
Alford’s 30-win 2009-10 team went 7-1 in one-possession games and had a KenPom “Luck” rating of 13th in the country. The other five Alford seasons had just a 12-15 mark in such games, including the next season going 1-5 with a “luck” rating of 318th.