The world watches as Lebanon collapses
Lebanon is collapsing economically, politically and socially. The government is paralyzed, and institutions are in disarray.
As a result, Lebanese politicians — in particular President Michel Aoun, Caretaker Prime Minister Hassan Diab, Prime Ministerdesignate Saad Hariri, Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hasan Nasrallah, and Amal’s leader and Speaker of the House Nabih Berri — are responsible for Lebanon’s current debacle and should be held accountable. Lebanon cannot be saved as a state unless influential external actors decide to step in and create conditions that could pull Lebanon back from the abyss. Using outside influence now is more urgent than ever.
Sectarian politics in Lebanon has allowed national politicians to pursue their narrow interests at the expense of the country. Alliances have been formed, for example between the Maronite president and the Shi’ite Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah, in order to maximize their control of the national purse, expand their wealth, and keep their armed militias wellfunded.
The extravagant lifestyles of the political elite attests to this corruption, and the people know it. If these conditions are allowed to continue, Lebanon could become bankrupt within two years, which would allow neighboring states and terrorist groups to exploit Lebanon’s instability.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah has used its military and financial resources from Iran and Syria to cow leaders of other Lebanese parties to its will, especially on government formation and budgetary allocations.
The ongoing political paralysis and inability to form a government are pushing Lebanon toward disintegration and collapse.
Citizens have no money to buy groceries, and when they do, the Lebanese currency, the lira, is becoming almost worthless. Tempers are flaring in markets, at banks, in government offices and on the streets.
The recent U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization’s Hunger Hotspots report highlights the dire hunger and “catastrophic famine” situation in Lebanon. The FAO report warns “civil unrest and violent clashes could become more frequent.”
Brain drain is another worrisome casualty of Lebanon’s deteriorating economic situation. Many professionals who have the means or who hold a dual citizenship from Western countries and have close relatives living in these countries are leaving in droves. While the bottom 60% of Lebanese society is struggling to put food on the table, the professional stratum of society is immigrating and taking all of their expertise with them.
As Lebanon loses this precious creative human capital, it slowly begins to resemble many poor failed states in the Middle East region and beyond.
The famed bustling urban life of Beirut is rapidly disappearing except for the thin upper crust of the city. With the disappearance of the vibrant commerce and prosperity — the hallmark of Lebanon in previous decades — the country increasingly resembles a banana republic.
If external powers — especially the European Union, Britain, the United States, Canada and Australia — believe that Lebanon’s stability remains an important ingredient in the regional geopolitical context, they should embark on a bold strategy to prevent Lebanon from becoming a failed state. In case the U.N. Security Council decides against a temporary Trusteeship Council for Lebanon, as I had suggested earlier, the EU+4 could be an efficacious substitute.
The United States’ envisioned involvement in this multinational initiative is based on the assumption that Lebanon’s collapse will have a destabilizing ripple effect throughout the region. Terrorist groups and their regional affiliates, plus potentially nefarious state actors in the neighborhood, will rush in to fill the ensuing vacuum, which would be inimical to U.S. regional interests.
In the short-term, the EU+4 group should establish a multibillion-dollar international fund to help the Lebanese economy recover to be disbursed through a special Economic Council for Lebanon, which would be created by the EU+4. Such a council would comprise non-political Lebanese technocrats, plus representatives from the EU+4 group.
Also in the short-term, the EU+4 should work with Lebanese professionals and technocrats to form a new government of distinguished technocrats, academics and business people with the sole purpose of reviving the economy and employment.
In the long-term, the EU+4 will need to tackle the confessional or sectarian basis of governance in Lebanon, which has been a major root cause of the country’s endemic corruption. The EU+4’s designated emissary for Lebanon should start a series of meetings to explore different modalities for the future governance of Lebanon.
Early in its modern history, the confessional system helped stabilize the country and created a functioning system of government. The economic, demographic and political changes in recent decades, however, have rendered the confessional system obsolete. It must be changed if Lebanon is to be saved.