European strongmen in bid to keep power
Both leaders maintain close ties to Putin
Two of Europe’s most dominant leaders are bidding to keep their grip on power in elections that have put a spotlight on their close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin after his invasion of Ukraine.
Most polls suggest Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is on track to win a fourth straight term on Sunday, but the race is unusually tight after the opposition formed a six-party alliance and a survey published a day before the vote showed the two camps were neck and neck. Next door in Serbia, President Aleksandar Vucic is expected to have an easier path to victory, though is unlikely to repeat a landslide of two years ago.
The war in Ukraine has overshadowed the votes and both leaders have depicted themselves as the defenders of the nation. Opponents have sought to frame the elections as a choice between fostering integration with Western Europe or risking political and economic isolation.
Should they prevail, Orban and Vucic both face similar balancing acts as Europe contends with Russia. Hungary has cozied up to Putin and China while aggravating fellow European Union members over everything from control of the media and immigration to LGBTQ rights and cronyism. Vucic has struggled to reconcile Serbia’s traditionally close allegiance with Russia with the country’s ambition to join the EU.
With the incumbents reinforced by state media, both campaigns have pivoted toward the war as the countries feel the economic impact of energy security and inflation and the political fallout from Putin’s invasion.
Orban, 58, who returned to power in 2010 and has shaped Hungary into what he calls his “illiberal democracy,” was quick to back the initial round of EU sanctions against Russia and opened the door to Ukrainian refugees. He balked, though, at allowing Hungary to be a conduit for weapons and stopping flows of Russian oil and gas.
After Orban vowed not to let Hungary “become a sacrificial pawn in someone else’s war,” Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy singled him out in an address to a March 24 EU leaders summit, saying it was time he chose what side he was on.
For Vucic, 52, the conflict has helped him to deflect the opposition’s focus on corruption allegations in Serbia and environmental issues that were central to their attack following a wave of protests last year against pollution. The Serbian president has condemned the invasion but stopped short of joining the Russian sanctions. His party has replaced its initial campaign slogan highlighting economic achievements with “Peace. Security. Vucic.”
“Both are playing the card of people’s psychological desire to have predictability in the age of uncertainty by portraying themselves as the guardians of stability in troubled times,” said Vuk Vuksanovic, a researcher at Belgrade Center for Security Policy. “The war in Ukraine made life for the Serbian opposition even more difficult.”
The latest polling shows the message is working. Orban, the EU’s longest-serving head of government, widened his slender lead over the opposition candidate, Peter Marki-Zay, in the wake of the war. Still, an upset can’t be ruled out because of “huge uncertainty” over the polling data since the war upended the campaign, according to Tibor Zavecz, who heads pollster Zavecz Research in Budapest.
An opposition victory would herald a tumultuous period for Hungary. Marki-Zay has vowed to jail officials for graft and roll back Orban’s power consolidation. Orban, though, has tapped loyalists to helm key state institutions in a bid to retain influence regardless of the election outcome.