Finale here: Can Lobos pick up win in Logan?
UNM has an opportunity to get a Quad 1 victory against Utah State
If the madness of March hasn’t officially started, the monotonous talk of NET rankings, bubbles and Big Dance bracket projections certainly has.
The New Mexico Lobos are still in the NCAA men’s tournament, but barely, in one expert’s projection or just out, but barely, in another expert’s projection.
Bracketology is an industry that has erupted in recent years for one very simple reason: Fans eat it up.
But for UNM Coach Richard Pitino, whose Lobos (22-8, 10-7 Mountain West) are in Logan, Utah, for their regular season finale Saturday night against league champion No. 22 Utah State (which clinched at least a share of the title earlier this week), all that tournament talk means little.
“It’s interesting to look at, but it doesn’t really matter,” Pitino said. “At the end of the day, we’re gonna go play Utah State who … are the champions. They’ve got at least a share of it, right?
“Tough place to play. Let’s go see if we can get ‘em. We’re right there for the NCAA Tournament. We haven’t been there in 10 years. And I love the fact that we’re in the mix for it. It’s awesome. Great opportunity there and a great opportunity in the conference tournament and beyond. So let’s go prepare our butts off and see if we can go steal one.”
Stealing one in Logan at the revitalized (not that it fell off much at all) Dee Glen Smith Spectrum in front of an elite student section will be no easy task. The Lobos haven’t won in Logan since 2015, a span of six road games.
But the Lobos did knock off the then 16th-ranked Aggies in the Pit on Jan. 16, 99-86. And the Lobos rank higher than the Aggies in all major computer metrics (though not the human-based Top 25 AP and coaches polls).
Utah State (25-5, 13-4 MWC), which was ranked ninth in the league’s preseason media poll, has, albeit with some good fortune, taken care of business in coach Danny Sprinkle’s first season. The Aggies, due to the Mountain West’s unbalanced league schedule, played Nevada and UNLV only once each and beat the Running Rebels by one point thanks to a five-point play in the closing seconds.
Two weeks ago, USU hit a 35-foot banked-in 3-pointer with
2 seconds left to avoid an upset against Fresno State.
The Lobos, on the other hand, have played themselves into the difficult position of postseason uncertainty, largely due to a lack of marquee wins in nonconference play and the stunning Feb. 24 home loss to Air Force.
But in addition to Saturday’s game, next week’s tournament gives UNM multiple opportunities at quality victories that would assure they break a decade-long NCAA Tournament drought.
“The beauty of our league is there’s so many Quad 1s right?” said Pitino Wednesday night after his team’s 21-point home win over Fresno State. He’s referring to the “quad” system used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee. A Quad 1 victory is any home win over a top 30 NET team; a neutral-court win over a top 50 NET team; or a road win over a top 75 NET team. The committee also calculates Quad 2, 3 and 4 wins and losses in determining which teams should earn at-large selections and where teams should be seeded.
Based on Utah State’s NET ranking of 32, Saturday is a Quad 1 opportunity for the Lobos. But because UNM has a NET ranking of 26, the Aggies can also add a
Quad 1 victory to their résumé with a win.
The Lobos will also likely have Quad 1 win opportunities in any Mountain West Tournament game they play from the quarterfinal round and beyond.
Even one such win, many bracket experts suggest, would likely punch UNM’s ticket to the Big Dance.
“It’s the toughest the league has ever been,” Pitino said. “And we’ve got 10 league wins. Pretty darn good for adding eight new players (in the offseason). So let’s go put together a great game plan and see if we can go get Utah State. No, it won’t be easy. Let’s see if we can do it.”
SKIP THE COMMERCIALS: For just the second time in Mountain West play and fourth time this season, the Lobos flew commercial to Utah on Friday. All other road trips (minus the bus ride for the annual in-state rivalry game against New Mexico State in Las Cruces) were chartered flights, which several programs around the Mountain West have made their regular mode of transportation for basketball over the last couple seasons.