Congress faces showdown over budget, debt cap

Lawmakers must strike deal to avoid October shutdown

WASHINGTON — When Congress returns Monday from its summer break, lawmakers must quickly forge an agreement to avoid a government shutdown and then pivot to raise the government’s borrowing authority by mid-October or face a U.S. debt default.

Those fights were complicated enough before President Barack Obama announced he’d seek congressional approval for a military strike against Syria. Now, the Syria debate eats into what little time is available for a budget deal. And that’s on top of a more complicated political and fiscal landscape than a year ago, including huge differences in competing spending plans, a changed tax landscape and new political calculations.

The fiscal year ends Sept. 30, with the government having spent about $3.45 trillion, just a little less than spending in 2010. Absent some sort of a deal to fund government starting Oct.1, a shutdown is possible.

During the last budget battle, the Republican-led House of Representatives and the Democrat-led Senate were about $29 billion apart in their proposed spending plans. This time they are $91 billion apart.

Lawmakers have the option to continue government spending on a temporary basis to avoid a shutdown. That would likely leave in place the so-called budget sequester and the scheduled $109 billion of new across-the-board cuts in federal spending in the coming fiscal year.

Just days later, another crisis looms. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew sent a letter Aug. 26 to congressional leaders warning that the government will hit the $16.39 trillion debt ceiling — the cap on the federal government’s borrowing authority — about the middle of October. The government would then be unable to borrow to pay all the bills already racked up. That would trigger a default and a lowering of the U.S. government’s credit rating, raising the cost of future borrowing and potentially sparking financial turmoil.

House Speaker John Boehner has promised “a whale of a fight” over raising the debt ceiling, insisting on spending cuts or overhauls equal to or greater than the amount of any new borrowing.

Obama administration officials have met quietly since early summer with a group of Republican senators to try to find a compromise on budget, deficit and debt issues. The two sides abandoned the talks in late August.

One complicating factor is that the last budget deal, on New Year’s Day, now clouds the current talks, said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which advocates for lower deficits and debt.

The deal raised taxes on the wealthiest Americans and extended jobless benefits for 2 million long-term unemployed. Republicans who agreed to the tax increase then are unlikely to do so again.

“It’s made things more difficult,” MacGuineas said.

Returning lawmakers have about three weeks to come up with a budget for the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1.

“Suffice it to say that threatening to shut down the government would have a terrible impact on our economy,” White House spokesman Josh Earnest said. “Threats to shut down the government would only undermine the economic recovery that’s starting to gain some traction.”

With congressional leaders dug in, a solution may have to come from Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., chairman of the House Budget Committee, and Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, the committee’s top Democrat. For now, Ryan, viewed as a top-tier GOP presidential candidate, is sticking to familiar themes.

“Chairman Ryan believes we need to give real relief to American families,” said William Allison, Ryan’s spokesman. “This fall, he’s hopeful we will delay Obamacare, pay down the debt and help grow the economy.”

In an interview, Van Hollen said there have been no back-channel talks with Ryan and pointed to deep divisions in the House Republican caucus.

“They’ve got no authority from their caucus to negotiate anything,” he said. “They can’t deliver.”

The fiscal fights are unfolding just as the 2014 election season begins. The next round of congressional budget votes will be felt back home next year, especially defense cuts that are expected to be felt more in the sequester’s second year.

“This rolling, cumulative impact is what I hope will get to … members,” said Steve Bell, a senior expert at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a think tank that has provided a road map for budget compromises.

One example of the political squeeze is Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

Conservatives warn that too much compromise could mean a rough time for McConnell in next year’s primary against Louisville businessman Matt Bevin.

But if McConnell distances himself from crafting a compromise, he could face a different political dilemma. Should he win the primary, he’d probably run against Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Democrats have labeled her effort their top Senate priority next year.

Democrats control 54 of the Senate’s 100 seats — expected to grow by one next month if New Jersey’s Cory Booker wins a special election. But the six to eight most vulnerable Senate seats next year are held by Democrats, most of them in conservative states.

In Arkansas, Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor is likely to face Republican Rep. Tom Cotton, and the conservative Club for Growth vows a vigorous battle.

“Cotton has been stellar on the issues Club members care about. He opposes wasteful government spending, fights to repeal Obamacare, and will never vote for an anti-growth tax increase,” the club said.

House Republicans hold a 33-seat edge, and analysts don’t see Democrats winning back control next year. Republicans could stumble, though, if they appear as if they’re promoting fiscal chaos. Leaders vividly remember how the party was blamed for the 199596 government shutdown, giving President Bill Clinton political momentum he never relinquished.

“The parties are acutely concerned about how much blame they’re going to face if they don’t come to the table,” said Sarah Binder, a congressional expert at the center-left Brookings Institution. “The more blame you face, the less negotiating power you have.”