What it means for Arkansas
Tuesday’s elections in New Jersey and Virginia were less about whether the Tea Party is alive, dead or sick than about two greater American political truths of the moment.
There are implications for Arkansas in 2014.
One of those greater political truths is that people are sick of government that doesn’t work.
They will vote, regardless of party, for the politician who best demonstrates that he can make government work competently. Or, put another way, they will favor the candidate not as blame-worthy for government incompetence as the other.
The other greater truth is that the Republicans continue to face nationally such dire long-term demographic problems with the changing America—with women, young people and Hispanics—that they actually are in kind of a death spiral.
In that framework, Republican Chris Christie becomes the biggest personal story from Tuesday.
He overwhelmingly won re-election in Democratic New Jersey on account of appearing to have worked effectively with Democrats to get things done, such as Hurricane Sandy recovery, Medicaid expansion and budget reform.
He emerges as a central Republican presidential contender for 2016 because, while Republicans are losing women in droves, and losing Hispanics in growing droves, and losing blacks in lingering droves, he won these margins Tuesday, according to exit polling:
56 percent of women, and, by the way, 33 percent of Democrats.
50 percent of Hispanics, perhaps in part because he recently came out in favor of in-state college tuition rates for qualifying children of illegal immigrants.
21 percent of blacks, not 1 percent, as asserted incorrectly in this space Thursday due to an unfortunate typographical error.
Consider this contrast: New Jersey voters favored Christie 60 percent to 39 percent for governor, but, according to exit polling, favored Hillary Clinton over him 48 percent to 44 percent for president.
That means Jersey voters like him for the job they believe he has demonstrated an ability to perform. It doesn’t mean they’ve waived the Peter Principle or switched from blue to red in terms of underlying philosophy.
In Virginia, the governor’s race was about the ebb and flow of recent government dysfunction, and about which party was more to blame.
Ten days ago Democrat Terry McAuliffe appeared to be headed for a solid victory by six or more points. The Republican candidate was in free fall because Virginians were mad about the silliness of the government shutdown and the Republicans’ far-greater complicity.
But then McAuliffe, rather than win robustly, narrowly held on. By Election Day a sizable segment of the Virginia electorate was less mad about the fading shutdown than about the more recent dysfunction of the Obamacare rollout for which Democrats bear total complicity.
Who are you maddest at most recently? That is the question.
According to exit polling, McAuliffe won women by nine points and unmarried women by 40. He won blacks 90-8 and Hispanics 66-29. He had a healthy lead among all persons younger than 44.
That is to say the Republican candidate trounced McAuliffe among older white males. And we become a smaller percentage of the
electorate every day.
And what are those implications for Arkansas? Just these: Arkansas Democrats have decided their best resistance to the surging Republicanism of the state is to finesse the partisan label and seize the competence mantle.
They’ve looked at Mike Beebe’s consistent 60-plus approval rating, earned by making government work, and decided they are Mike Beebe Democrats.
In the 4th District they are running for Congress the famously competent former FEMA director in the Clinton administration, James Lee Witt.
His message is that he knows how to go into disaster areas and coordinate recovery. It’s that there is no greater disaster area needing recovery in America more than Washington, D.C.
In the 2nd District they are running the former longtime mayor of North Little Rock, Pat Hays.
His message is that he learned close to home that you can’t shut down government because garbage piles up quickly both in Democratic and Republican homes.
And take note of U.S. Sen. Mark Pryor’s message in his latest television commercial. It’s that Tom Cotton helped shut down the government but that Pryor worked with a Republican colleague, U.S. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, to fashion an agreement to get it reopened.
The premium nationally right now is on competence, effectiveness and a transcending of partisanship. It was the story in New Jersey. It was the fluid dynamic in Virginia.
And it is Arkansas Democrats’ only and best strategy for stemming the state’s perhaps unstoppable Republican tide.