’Noles stay No. 2 behind Alabama
Florida State took firm hold of second place in the BCS standings behind topranked Alabama and grabbed the inside track to the national championship game.
The Seminoles were second last week, but seemed likely to get passed by Oregon if the Ducks remained unbeaten. Stanford, however, handed Oregon its first loss of the season Thursday night and Florida State benefited.
The Seminoles (.9619) are a solid second in the USA Today coaches’ poll and Harris poll, and second in the computer rankings that make up the final third of a BCS average.
Ohio State (.8926) is third in the polls but fourth in the computers. The Buckeyes are closer to fourth-place Stanford (.8689) than Florida State.
Unbeaten Baylor (.8618) is fifth, not far behind the Cardinal (.8689).
But Florida State and Alabama appear headed for a BCS championship game matchup if they can avoid being upset.
“Just win,” BCS analyst Jerry Palm of CBS.com said about Florida State. “They control their own destiny now. Just win.”
Florida State’s 51-14 victory against Clemson in the middle
of October sent the Seminoles surging past Ohio State in the polls. The Buckeyes haven’t had a chance to change the momentum because they haven’t played ranked opponents since beating Wisconsin and Northwestern in back-to-back weeks in late September and early October.
“Ohio State never had a game where they could get some juice with the voters, get the voters’ attention.” Palm said.
Palm said that it’s likely if Alabama or Florida State — or both — stumble it would be Ohio State or Baylor moving into the top two spots and not one-loss Stanford.
“The problem is Baylor and Ohio State are ahead of Stanford in the polls and eventually the BCS standings will reflect that,” he said.
Unbeaten Fresno State of the Mountain West moved up to No. 14. The Bulldogs need a top-12 finish to secure the so-called BCS buster bid as an automatic qualifier from a non-AQ conference. They also need to be the highest rated non-AQ champion.
Undefeated Northern Illinois of the Mid-American Conference is 15th and trying to be a BCS Buster for the second straight season.
Neither team can afford a loss, but Palm said attrition alone should get Fresno State and NIU into final top-12 if they can win out.
The BCS standings, which use the Harris and USA Today coaches’ polls, lined up the same way as the Associated Press poll on Sunday night — with Alabama and Florida State in the top two spots and unbeaten Ohio State trailing. The Buckeyes were closer to fourth-place Stanford than to second-place Florida State.
Ohio State fans contend they’re being done in by a narrative that has developed in the media: The Big Ten is bad and the Buckeyes are overrated.
A third of the BCS formula is based on computer rankings, and those computers really like Florida State. But those computer rankings are at least partially undercut by the fact that margin of victory is not allowed because of fears that it could lead to teams running up scores.
Jeff Sagarin does ratings for the BCS, but also posts what he calls more accurate ratings that do include margin of victory. In those, Florida State is the No. 1 team in the country. The Seminoles are second in the nation in average margin of victory (40 points) behind Baylor (46).
Ohio State is No. 7 in the Sagarin rankings, behind even Wisconsin, a team that the Buckeyes beat 31-24 in Columbus back in September. The Buckeyes average margin of victory is 31 points.
According to Sagarin’s ratings, Ohio State has played the 81st toughest schedule in Division I. Florida State’s is 62nd.
Ranking conferences, Sagarin goes by division because as conferences have grown, there is less competition between divisions.
The ACC Coastal ranks fifth, behind the SEC West, Pac-12 North, Pac-12 South and SEC East. The Big 12, with 10 teams and no divisions, is next, followed by the two Big Ten divisions. The ACC Atlantic, home of Florida State, comes in ninth.
Strength of schedule numbers could shift a bit toward Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin, and Peter Wolfe. Each computer ranking accounts for schedule strength in its formula.
The BCS Average is calculated by averaging the percent totals of the Harris Interactive, USA Today Coaches and Computer polls. Ohio State over the last month of the season. The Buckeyes finish with Illinois, Indiana and Michigan, with a possible Big Ten championship game against Michigan State on the horizon.
Florida State finishes with Syracuse, Idaho and Florida, with an ACC title game matchup against Virginia Tech, Miami, Georgia Tech or Duke.