U.N. raises global warming’s price tag
Report says costs could reach $500B in poorer nations
LIMA, Peru — The cost to poor countries of adjusting to ever-hotter temperatures will be two or even three times higher than previously thought, the United Nations’ environment agency said Friday — and that assumes a best-case scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions are dramatically reduced.
“If you don’t cut emissions, we’re just going to have to ask for more money because the damage is going to be worse,” Ronald Jumeau of the Seychelles said at U.N. climate talks.
The report was bound to sharpen disputes in Lima over who pays the bills for the effects of global warming, the primary cause of which is said to be the burning of coal, oil and gas but also includes deforestation. It has long been the thorniest issue at the U.N. negotiations, now in their 20th round.
Rich countries have pledged to help the developing world convert to clean energy and adapt to shifts in global weather that scientists say are already adversely affecting crops, human health and economies. But poor countries say they’re not seeing enough cash.
Projecting the annual costs that poor countries will face by 2050 just to adapt, the United Nations Environment Program report deemed the previous estimate of $70 billion to $100 billion “a significant underestimate.” It had been based on 2010 World Bank numbers.
The report says new studies indicate the costs will likely be “two to three times higher,” possibly even as high as $500 billion.
But that’s only if global warming stays below 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit compared with preindustrial times, the limit set in the U.N. talks. Scientists have said that would require cuts in greenhouse gas emissions that the world is nowhere near on track to accomplish.
“The report provides a powerful reminder that the potential cost of inaction carries a real price tag,” United Nations Environment Program Director Achim Steiner said in a statement.
Climate change effects, including rising sea levels, shifts in rainfall patterns and more intense heat waves, affect all countries, scientists say, but poorer countries aren’t well equipped to cope.
“We know what needs to be done. We just need the dollars or euros,” said Jumeau, who is also spokesman for small island states. The Seychelles is struggling to protect beaches from eroding, freshwater wells from drying up and coral reefs from being damaged, he said.
There is concern in Latin America that gains against poverty in the past two decades will be reversed because of climate change.
A World Bank study this year found that two degrees of warming would cause crop yields in Brazil to drop by 30-70 percent for soy and 50 percent for wheat.
Rich countries have pledged to provide $100 billion by 2020 to help developing countries reduce their emissions and adapt to climate change. They are not on track to deliver. Their governments provided about $25 billion in adaptation money to developing countries in 2012-2013, the U.N. report said.
Jumeau noted that the U.S. Congress approved more than twice as much in a disaster aid package after Hurricane Sandy in 2012.
The talks’ host country, Peru, is one of the most vulnerable to climate change, scientists say. Already, it faces diminished highland water supplies from melting glaciers, and warming has also hurt the fishing industry.
The U.N.’s World Food Program says 3 million Peruvians — or one in 10 — are highly vulnerable to food insecurity and natural disaster risks.
Yet, like most developing nations, what it spends on adapting to climate change, including highlands reservoirs and irrigation projects, will have to compete with other urgent needs, such as improving education, public health and public transport.
One vehicle for funding adaptation and mitigating damages from climate change is The Green Climate Fund, which nearly reached the $10 billion mark on Friday with a $258 million pledge from Norway. But some countries have declined to support it.
Australia’s foreign minister said Friday ahead of traveling to climate talks in Peru that her country will continue to directly pay for climate change adaptation in vulnerable South Pacific island nations through its aid budget rather than donate to the fund.
Julie Bishop said governments should judge for themselves whether bilateral action to reduce the effects of climate change on developing countries was a more efficient use of aid money than donating through the U.N.
Australia has been accused of setting a poor example for other countries by failing to contribute to the fund. Bishop’s government also has been criticized for abolishing Australia’s carbon tax that was levied on the country’s worst greenhouse gas polluters until July.
It replaced the tax with a $2.14 billion government fund to pay polluters incentives to operate more cleanly.
Bishop said Australia was on track to achieve its target of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions to 12 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. Information for this article was contributed by Frank Bajak and Rod McGuirk of The Associated Press.