What-if playoff scenarios
The 12-member College Football Playoff selection committee will gather today in Texas to watch the final weekend of the season play out and then rank the nation’s top 25 teams. The top four will compete for the national championship in the sport’s first playoff, and the committee will release its final findings at 11:30 a.m. Central Sunday on ESPN.
It’s possible that the top four teams — Alabama, Oregon, TCU and Florida State — will all take care of business, making the announcement a mere formality.
But what happens if things don’t go as expected?
MISSOURI BEATS ALABAMA?
The unthinkable could happen if Missouri were to pull off this colossal upset. There is a very real possibility the SEC would be left out of the playoff. Missouri is ranked 16th in the latest playoff rankings. That’s a long way to go to get in the four-team field. The committee clearly is not loving Missouri’s ugly home losses (31-27 against Indiana and 34-0 to Georgia), so it’s doubtful it will forgive Alabama for losing to the Tigers and allow the Crimson Tide back into the field. If the Tigers pull an upset, the SEC is going to need a lot of help. The Crimson Tide is favored by 141/ 2.
GEORGIA TECH BEATS FLORIDA STATE?
The Seminoles have been dropping with every narrow victory, so there’s no doubt they’d be done with a loss. Georgia Tech is 11th and beating Florida State would mean finishing the season with three consecutive victories against ranked teams. The Yellow Jackets would probably need Baylor (vs. Kansas State) and Ohio State (vs. Wisconsin) to lose to reach the top four, but considering who those teams are playing, that doesn’t seem like such a stretch. Florida State is favored by 4.
TCU STRUGGLES VS. IOWA STATE?
The Horned Frogs got a pass for squeaking by at Kansas last month. That can’t happen again against a 30-point underdog at home. An unimpressive victory would open the door for either Baylor or Ohio State to replace the Frogs in the top four. The third-ranked Horned Frogs better exert some serious game control against the Cyclones, with Baylor and Ohio State in position to add marquee victories to their overall resumes.
THREE OF THE TOP FOUR TEAMS LOSE?
Assuming it won’t be TCU, the Big 12 would be looking good to get two teams in the field. TCU, Baylor, Ohio State and Arizona sounds about right in this scenario. If Baylor were to lose to K-State, the ninth-ranked Wildcats could become a viable option, though that scenario probably allows Georgia Tech to squeeze through.
ALABAMA, OHIO STATE AND BAYLOR LOSE?
This is how Missouri could get in the conversation. Assuming Arizona and Georgia Tech also lose, the final spot with Florida State, TCU and Oregon comes down to Missouri, Kansas State and Wisconsin. Michigan State (eighth) and Mississippi State (10th) would likely come back into the conversation, but neither would have the conference championship that those other three would have on their resumes. And what team would have a better victory than Missouri if it takes down the committee’s No. 1 team on a neutral field?
THE TOP SIX ALL LOSE?
Long and his crew might have to pull an all-nighter.
The questions with this doomsday scenario are: Could it allow Alabama to back in? Would Mississippi State and/ or Michigan State get in? And how bad will the TV ratings be for a final four of Arizona, Georgia Tech, Kansas State and Wisconsin or Missouri?