German defiant: No arms for Ukrainians
Merkel, Europe fear escalation by Russia
MUNICH — Differences within the Western alliance over whether to send defensive arms to Ukraine were thrust into the open Saturday when Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, bluntly opposed providing lethal military support to Kiev and called instead for continued efforts to persuade Russia and separatist forces to cease fire.
“The progress that Ukraine needs cannot be achieved by more weapons,” she told the Munich Security Conference, an annual event drawing national-security officials, analysts and policymakers from around the world.
Merkel set a tone of urgency as she warned of the risk of an “uncontrollable escalation” in Ukraine.
The conference has exposed the fault lines specifically between what many U.S. politicians consider the need for a forceful response to Russian aggression and Europe’s more measured calculations.
A U.S. delegation of more than a dozen members of Congress and the vice president were in Munich to make the case for sending lethal defensive weapons to the beleaguered Ukrainian military, which is under siege and in
“She can’t see how arming people who are willing to fight and die for their freedom makes things better. I do.” — Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., saying German Chancellor Angela Merkel is wrong in refusing to supply weapons to Ukraine
retreat. But European leaders are warning that move is all but certain to invite Russia to send in even more and bigger weapons, ultimately sending the conflict spiraling further out of control.
Merkel’s position was challenged by Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., when he asked about German reluctance to agree to provide Ukraine lethal, defensive weapons.
She answered the new chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee bluntly: “Well, you see, I am firmly convinced that this conflict cannot be solved by military means.” If weapons were provided, she said, Russian President Vladimir Putin would likely up the ante, providing far more superior weapons to separatists. “I understand your viewpoint and also the discussion that is going on,” but the conflict cannot be settled by providing more weapons, she said.
The pointed exchanges did not provide a sense of how the United States and its European allies hoped to fashion a common strategy that might persuade Putin to honor an agreement negotiated in Minsk, Belarus, in September. The agreement called for a cease-fire and the removal of Russian weapons and forces from eastern Ukraine.
Merkel did not say if she had made any headway in her talks Friday in Moscow with Putin and French President Francois Hollande, who also has opposed arming the Ukrainians but is eager to fulfill an existing contract to sell warships to Russia if the crisis eases.
Merkel drew parallels to the containment policy that ended the Cold War and suggested that a prolonged period of economic sanctions was the best strategy, though one, she acknowledged, that might not work in the end.
“We have no guarantees that President Putin will do what we expect him to do,” she said, conceding that Russian violations of the Minsk agreement had been “very disillusioning, very disappointing.” But given the imbalance in forces between Russia and Ukraine, she said, “I do think that military means will lead to more victims” and not produce the West’s desired outcome.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who sat on a panel, accused Merkel of making a big mistake by refusing to supply Kiev with better weapons.
“She can’t see how arming people who are willing to fight and die for their freedom makes things better,” he said. “I do.”
Graham asked Merkel to remember how the world helped Germany recover from the ashes of World War II and said it was Europe that courted Kiev to reject an economic deal with Russia in the first place, precipitating a crisis 14 months later.
“The United States Congress is beginning to form a consensus — Republican and Democrat, conservative and liberal — that it is in our national security interest, and the interest of the world, to stand by Ukraine politically, economically, and give them the defensive capability to counter what Mr. Lavrov says is not happening,” he said, referring to the Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s representative at the Munich conference.
A CHALLENGE FOR PUTIN
In an afternoon panel, an impassioned Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president, called for a new, internationally recognized cease-fire, followed by a negotiated and democratic longer-term solution to the crisis. Suggesting the fate of such a deal now rested with Putin, he said, “this is an important challenge, and we should have an answer in very few hours, or very maximum, days.”
Should there be no agreement, he said, Ukraine “should have the right to defend our people and our territory with the support of the whole world.” In that case, he called for the provision of defensive weapons to Ukraine. He answered critics in Europe who argue such a move would escalate the crisis by saying it was the lack of arms thus far that had emboldened Ukraine’s opponents to act without caution. He vowed that any arms provided would be used only defensively, not offensively.
At stake, he said, was “the freedom of Europe, independence of Europe and security in the world.”
Poroshenko also appealed for military assistance, arguing that it would encourage Russia to accept a political solution. “The stronger our defense, the more convincing is our diplomatic voice.” And he strongly rejected the idea that additional territory concessions should be made in return for a new agreement.
He said Ukraine wanted defensive weapons, including communications equipment and counter-battery radars, to counter Russian artillery and radar.
Ukraine stands ready for a “comprehensive and immediate cease-fire” and Russia should be, too, he said.
He indicated he wanted no peacekeepers in eastern Ukraine, saying they wouldn’t be needed if foreign fighters withdrew and the Ukraine-Russia border were sealed. Then, he said, there would be “peace and stability in Ukraine … within a couple of weeks.”
“There is no temporary solution — this conflict must be resolved, not frozen,” he said, alluding to longtime conflicts involving breakaway regions in Georgia and Moldova.
Later, Poroshenko suggested the Ukrainian side could be flexible on certain issues. He said he was open to discussing the size and contours of a proposed buffer zone separating the combatants, and was prepared to put the question of federalization — by creating more regional autonomy — to a referendum.
U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said in his speech that while he had appeared before the conference six years before to urge that U.S.-Russia relations be “reset,” that period was over; the West was now being tested by Russia’s actions and needed to change its focus.
“Too often President Putin has promised peace and delivered tanks, troops and weapons,” he said.
The U.S. defense secretary nominee, Ashton Carter, has said he is inclined to provide arms to the Ukrainians. And Gen. Philip Breedlove, the NATO commander, said at the conference Friday that the delivery of defensive weapons to Ukraine should not be ruled out if economic sanctions and diplomatic efforts failed to persuade Russia to honor the Minsk agreement.
The White House has been much more cautious, and President Barack Obama is waiting until Merkel visits Washington on Monday before deciding.
So far, the Obama administration has committed to providing $118 million for training and nonlethal equipment for Ukraine’s Defense Ministry, State Border Guard Service and National Guard. The United States also is preparing plans for $120 million in additional nonlethal training and equipment.
RUSSIAN CLAIMS ‘COUP’
When it came the Russian foreign minister’s turn to address the conference, Lavrov voiced optimism for a deal, even as he spun a wholly different narrative of events. He accused the West of supporting a government in Kiev that he said came to power via a “coup d’etat.” He said additional weapons there would “exacerbate the tragedy of Ukraine.”
Lavrov said he expected the discussions Putin had with Merkel and Hollande to continue and that there were “good grounds for optimism.”
As soon as Kiev and eastern Ukrainian separatists agree on practical details of implementing the Minsk deal, “I am sure that Russia will be among those parties that will guarantee the implementation of this agreement,” Lavrov said at the conference. “But you can only guarantee what has already been achieved.”
He said that if a cease-fire deal were reached, Russia would seek to guarantee its implementation. But, he added, “you shouldn’t pretend that these people are going to obey what you tell them. They live in their own country.”
For his part, Putin said Russia doesn’t want to fight anyone but is warning against what he sees as foreign attempts to impede the country’s development.
The Russian president, who did not attend the Munich conference, made his remarks Saturday to a trade union congress in the resort city of Sochi.
“We don’t intend to war with anyone. We intend to cooperate with all,” Putin said.
But he also complained of “attempts to hold back our development by various means.”
Western sanctions, in concert with plunging oil prices, are taking a toll on Russia’s economy. But the sanctions have so far failed to dissuade Russians from supporting the rebels in eastern Ukraine. Germany, France and the United Kingdom believe that economic sanctions need more time.
In the longer game, Russia has pushed for the “federalization” of Ukraine that would give broad powers to its provinces and allow them to deal directly with Moscow.
France’s president said a new peace deal could feature a broad demilitarized zone and greater autonomy for Ukraine’s separatist eastern region. “These people have gone to war,” Hollande said. “It will be difficult to make them share a common life.”
Poroshenko and Putin are to confer with the leaders of Germany and France by phone today in an effort to overcome months of setbacks.
Merkel said it is uncertain whether any talks will succeed, “but it is, from my point of view and that of the French president, in any case worth making this attempt.”
The Munich conference continues through today.
Meanwhile, fighting continued in eastern Ukraine. Five Ukrainian servicemen were killed and 26 wounded in the past day, Ukrainian security council spokesman Volodymyr Polyoviy said Saturday. The government website in the port city of Mariupol said one man was killed in shelling of the outlying settlement of Gnutove, which it blamed on rebels.
More than 5,300 people have been killed since fighting began in April, according to a United Nations tally, and the bloodshed has markedly increased in the past two weeks.