RICK LEE'S Breeders' Cup picks, analysis.
TODAY’S RACES — NOON, NBCSN; 3 P.M. NBC
BC Juvenile Fillies. Purse $2,000,000, 1 1/16 miles, fillies, 2-year-olds. SONGBIRD has led from start to finish in all three of her races, which include Grade I victories at Santa Anita and Del Mar, and her Beyer figures have improved as the distances have increased. LAND OVER SEA was forwardly placed when second behind Songbird in the Grade I Chandelier, and she is another showing steady improvement and may benefit from a ground-saving trip. NICKNAME cruised to victory over sloppy footing in the Grade I Frizette at Belmont, which followed a decisive maiden sprint victory at Saratoga, and trainer Steve Asmussen has been hot at all venues lately.
BC Turf Sprint. Purse $1,000,000, 5 ½ furlongs, turf, 3-year-olds and up. UNDRAFTED defeated 14 rivals in a Group I race at Ascot two races back, and he narrowly missed winning this race last fall at Santa Anita and the powerful closer drew a favorable inside post. LADY SHIPMAN had a four-race winning streak end when losing a clear lead in a photo-finish loss Oct. 9, and the speedy multiple stakes-winning filly is again the one to catch and beat. PURE SENSATION followed a clear second-level allowance victory at Saratoga with a graded stakes victory at Parx, and he has good early speed and will be saving ground.
BC Filly and Mare Sprint. Purse $1,000,000, 7 furlongs, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up. CAVORTING overcame a moderate pace to run down rivals in the Grade I Test at Saratoga, and the talented 3-year-old filly is 5 for 5 in races at 7 furlongs or less. STONETASTIC is an exceptionally quick filly who won her allowance tuneup at Parx by 15 widening lengths, and she is a better filly this year than when she finished a tired fourth in the 2014 F & M Sprint. LA VERDAD is unbeaten in six races this season, including four graded stakes victories, and she has good early speed but seems best when controlling the pace, which she may not be able to do here.
BC Filly and Mare Turf. 1 3/16 miles, turf, fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up. LEGATISSIMO has defeated older rivals in consecutive Group I races in Ireland and Britain, and she has been a picture of consistency and is treated with Lasix for the first time. MISS FRANCE is a Group I winner who has finished second in four consecutive races, and she ships for trainer Andre Fabre, who knows how to win Breeders’ Cup races. QUEEN’S JEWEL is a lightly raced Group I winner with winning French connections, and she also is treated with Lasix for the first time.
BC Sprint. Purse $1,500,000, 6 furlongs, 3-year-olds and up. SALUTOS AMIGOS had early trouble when beaten a diminishing neck in the Grade I Vosburgh, and he typically strings big races together and the pace should be rapid and complement his late run. RUNHAPPY has been impressive in a four-race winning streak, which includes a four-length victory in the Kings Bishop at Saratoga, and has been able to accomplish the feat despite a habit of breaking a tad slow. PRIVATE ZONE is a multiple Grade I winner with earnings exceeding $2 million, and he is back at the top of his game and will be part of a contentious pace.
BC Mile. Purse $2,000,000, 1 mile, turf, 3-year-olds and up. IMPASSABLE is a 3-year-old filly who defeated older males in a graded stake tuneup at Longchamp, and she is riding a three-race winning streak and is treated with Lasix for her U.S. debut. KARAKONTIE won this same race last fall at 30-1 odds, and he had a perfect prep when third in a Group I race last month. He is fresh with only two races this year and is back on Lasix. MAKE BELIEVE has won two Group I races in his past three races, and he possesses good tracking speed and has the best of European trainer-rider teams.
BC Juvenile. Purse $2,000,000, 1 1/16 miles, colts and geldings, 2-year-olds. EXAGGERATOR suffered a tough-luck defeat in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland after winning at Saratoga and Del Mar, and the well-traveled colt has been able to stable on grounds and should have his legs back. GREENPOINT CRUSADER won a fast renewal of the Grade I Champagne at Belmont, and he is thriving as the distances lengthen and drew inside his primary rivals. BRODY’S CAUSE rallied past the top selection inside the final furlong when winning the Breeders’, but the early pace was a tad fast and the race was run over a muddy surface, so I am looking elsewhere, although he is a major threat.
BC Turf. Purse $3,000,000, 1 ½ miles, turf, 3-year-olds and up. GOLDEN HORN is a phenomenal colt who won two of Europe’s most prestigious races (Arc’ and Champion Stakes), and he drew an advantageous post and his class should prevail. FOUND finished second behind the top selection in the Champion Stakes but was non-threatening in the Arc’. On the other hand he is on Lasix for the first time, which often helps European shippers. THE PIZZA MAN was flying late when beaten a head in the Shadwell at Keeneland, and he showed his class winning the Arlington Million over soft ground in August.