U.S. trade deficit narrows, with oil imports at 2004 low
The U.S. trade gap shrank in September to a sevenmonth low, reflecting declining purchases of foreign fuel.
The deficit decreased 15 percent to $40.8 billion from a revised $48 billion in August, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday in Washington. The value of imported petroleum fell to the lowest level in more than a decade, and China replaced Canada as America’s top trading partner.
The narrowing gap meant trade had little effect on the economy in the third quarter, easing concerns that slower global growth and a stronger dollar would cause exports
to slump and that growing demand from American consumers would swell imports. An increase in exports, however, was led by volatile categories such as food and artwork, indicating the gain could be reversed in coming months.
“It does suggest that the trade deficit didn’t really widen much at all in the third quarter,” said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James Financial Inc. in St. Petersburg, Fla., whose forecast was among the closest in the Bloomberg survey. While the dollar has stabilized, “we know trade decisions don’t really turn on a dime, so it may take a while before we see the full impact.”
The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 67 economists called for a $41 billion shortfall, with estimates ranging from $39 billion to $49 billion.
The reading was in line with the advance report on merchandise trade issued last week, indicating the report will have little influence on gross domestic product when those figures are revised at the end of the month.
Imports decreased 1.8 percent to $228.7 billion from $233 billion in August. In addition to petroleum, the drop reflected slower sales for civilian aircraft, telecommunications equipment and mobile phones.
Conversely, demand for goods and services from China increased, driving the trade gap with the world’s second-biggest economy to a record $36.3 billion.
Total trade in goods with China reached $441.6 billion this year through September, surpassing the $438.1 billion balance with Canada — the first time that’s happened in data going back to 1985, according to the Commerce Department.
The U.S. imported $13.8 billion worth of petroleum from around the world, the least since May 2004, partly reflecting a slump in prices. The trade shortfall excluding crude and oil products narrowed to $35.2 billion in September from $41.1 billion.
Exports rose 1.6 percent to $187.9 billion in September. The increase in food shipments was paced by sales of soybeans.
After eliminating the effects of price fluctuations, which generates the numbers used to calculate GDP, the trade deficit narrowed to $57.2 billion in September from $63 billion the previous month.
The U.S. economy slowed to growth of 1.5 percent in the July-September quarter, but analysts are looking for a rebound to around 2.5 percent in the current OctoberDecember period.
President Barack Obama’s administration is preparing to unveil the text of a trade agreement it reached last month with Japan and nine other Pacific Rim nations, the next step in the administration’s effort to win congressional approval for the TransPacific Partnership deal.
However, that approval has been complicated by the announced opposition to the pact by Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is running for the Democratic presidential nomination. Her opposition could make it harder for Obama to round up the Democratic votes he will need in Congress to get the deal approved.