The two revolutions

Two revolutions have forever changed my home state. The first is a political revolution that began in 2010. Since the end of that year, Arkansas has gone from a congressional delegation in which five of the six members were Democrats to one in which all six are Republicans. It has gone from a state in which all of the seven statewide constitutional officers—governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, land commissioner, treasurer, and auditor— were Democrats to one in which all seven are Republicans. It has gone from heavy Democratic majorities in the state House and Senate to solid Republican majorities. Now, the shift is making its way down to the county level as the makeup of elected officials in courthouses across the state changes from Democrat to Republican.

I grew up in a state where the phrase “winning the Democratic primary is tantamount to election” was common in newspapers. Now the “tantamount” is on the GOP side. And you should expect that to last for decades. A Republican friend of mine said after the 2016 election that his Democratic sister-in-law had comforted herself by saying, “Well, you know these things go in cycles.” My friend told me: “She didn’t like my response. I replied, ‘Yes, and the last cycle in Arkansas lasted 130 years.’” For those who study Arkansas history, the speed with which this shift has taken place is breathtaking.

A second revolution likely will have an even more profound effect on Arkansas in the years ahead. It’s a demographic revolution, specifically where people live in the state. Between the 2000 census and the 2010 census, 39 Arkansas counties gained population and 36 lost population. The counties that gained population tended to be in the northwest, west, central and north-central parts of the state. The counties that lost population tended to be in east and south Arkansas. There were some exceptions. The Jonesboro area has grown at a rapid rate since the turn of the century, fueling growth in Craighead and Greene counties in northeast Arkansas. In general, though, large parts of the Delta of east Arkansas and the pine woods of south Arkansas are emptying out.

That trend of population density shifting from south and east to north and west is not a new one. It has been occurring since at least the 1950 census, when the widespread mechanization of agriculture meant that tens of thousands of tenant farmers and sharecroppers no longer were needed in the state’s rural areas. Arkansas lost a larger percentage of its population between 1940 and 1960 than any other state.

Let’s say that a plantation in the Delta needed 200 people before World War II to grow a crop of cotton each year. People had to be in place to “chop” the cotton in the summer—long lines of laborers would use hoes to clear weeds—and pick the cotton by hand in the fall. Following the war, the mechanical cotton picker, improved seed varieties, better insecticides and better herbicides allowed the plantation owner to grow that crop of cotton with 20 workers rather than 200. Now, the same amount of land can be farmed by two or three people with record yields being achieved.

Agriculture remains an integral part of the Arkansas economy, and that means the land in the Delta is as important to the state as it has ever been. It just takes far fewer people to farm that land. It’s not as if a swarm of locusts descended on the Delta. The root cause of the population losses lies in the fact that Arkansas farmers are among the best in the world at what they do. Efficiency is paramount in 21st-century agriculture. A strategic plan for southeast Arkansas that came out several years ago noted that “with its strong agricultural base, the region was among the state’s wealthiest areas until four or five decades ago when mechanization completely transformed the agricultural economy and reduced the number of farm-related jobs. When things were going well, there was little impetus for community leaders to look at options to expand the area’s economic foundation. As the tide turned, the usual reaction has been to establish an industrial park and then attempt to bring in small manufacturing concerns of one sort or another.” As manufacturing declined, that approach also faltered.

As noted, 36 Arkansas counties lost population in the first decade of the century. In 2015, 49 of the state’s 75 counties lost population even though the state gained population overall. It’s safe to predict that the 2020 census will show that a majority of Arkansas counties lost population in the second decade of the century even though the state will have gained population.

Figures released late last month by the U.S. Census Bureau showed that Bentonville’s population increased 5.4 percent in 2016, making it one of the fastest-growing cities in the country. The rest of the northwest Arkansas corridor saw Rogers grow 2.6 percent, Fayetteville grow 1.7 percent and Springdale grow 1.4 percent last year. Bentonville, Rogers, Fayetteville and Springdale have grown 33, 16, 14 and 13 percent respectively since 2010.

Jonesboro, which has seen its population increase 11 percent since 2010, grew 1.5 percent last year. Fort Smith has grown 2 percent since 2010. Little Rock has grown 3 percent since 2010 and added 346 people last year. North Little Rock has grown 6 percent since 2010 but lost 228 residents last year, according to the Census Bureau. Pine Bluff lost 1,140 residents last year, a 2.5 percent decline. The city had 49,083 residents in the 2010 census, down from 55,085 in the 2000 census and 57,140 in the 1990 census. The estimated population at the end of last year was 43,841, a loss of more than 13,000 people since 1990.

To visualize what’s happening, pretend there’s a giant magnet in Joplin, Mo. That magnet has been pulling the state’s population density toward the north and west since 1950. And its strength keeps increasing. Like the political revolution, there’s no end in sight to the demographic revolution. Like it or not, the future of Arkansas is Republican, and it looks toward the northwest.