Browns bad, but better than record
One loss away from being labeled as one of the worst NFL teams of all time, the Cleveland Browns deserve a better fate, writes Neil Greenberg of The Washington Post.
“Cleveland is allowing a league-low 3.3 yards per carry this season and has stopped 29 percent of rushers at or behind the line of scrimmage,” wrote Greenberg. “Only the 13-2 Philadelphia Eagles (31 percent) have been better at stuffing the run this season. In fact, teams are scoring 5.7 points per game less than expected via the run after you factor in the down, distance and field position of each play. The 2010 New York Jets, by comparison, had a similar run defense and won 10 games that year.
“Cleveland’s point differential also suggests a better record. The Browns have scored 210 points while allowing 380, giving them a minus-172 point differential for the season. The 2008 Lions, by comparison, were outscored by 249 points through the first 15 games. Since 2002, teams with a point differential between minus-150 and minus-200 after 15 games played have won an average of 2.8 games during that span of the regular season. And five of Cleveland’s losses in 2017 were by a margin of six points or less; only the 4-11 Tampa Bay Buccaneers have more losses (seven) by such a close margin in 2017.
“So is there any chance the Browns avoid an 0-16 fate? Using the same data that helped construct our power rankings — which highlights a team’s actual and expected win percentage for the year — Cleveland has a two percent chance (50-to-1 odds) of upsetting the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17, so it seems all but inevitable they will see their names etched in the record books for their futility. Which is a shame, because while they are far from being a Super Bowl contender, this team is much better than their record reflects.”