Democrats’ advantage in midterm challenged
NEW YORK — President Donald Trump’s Republican Party is threatening to erode Democrats’ enthusiasm advantage as the debate over his Supreme Court nominee enters its final phase.
Political strategists in both parties suggest the GOP’s embrace of Brett Kavanaugh despite multiple allegations of sexual misconduct may have shifted the political landscape — at least temporarily — by injecting new energy into the most passionate Republican voters a month before the election. Trump’s defense of Kavanaugh has resonated particularly with white working-class men, who are a shrinking voting bloc nationally but remain a critical segment of Trump’s political base.
Energy is everything in midterm elections, which typically draw fewer eligible voters to the polls. And through the first 21 months of Trump’s term, Democrats have claimed an undisputed enthusiasm advantage — as evidenced by a slate of special election victories and fundraising successes.
Yet even a small erosion in the so-called enthusiasm gap could make a big difference in the Democratic Party’s highstakes push to wrest control of Congress from the GOP.
The Kavanaugh debate “is making the two groups of people who are already mad at each other in America even madder. To me, the question is, who is maddest?” said Gary Pearce, a veteran North Carolina Democratic strategist.
Just as Trump benefited from opposition to Hillary Clinton in his 2016 election, the GOP could benefit from opposition to the Democratic Party’s handling of Kavanaugh this midterm season.
The Supreme Court clash has already attracted a surge of new campaign cash for both parties.
The Republican National Committee and its associated groups raised more than $3 million in digital donations last weekend, the most it’s ever raised online, according to GOP spokesman Cassie Smedile. And last Sunday was the GOP’s highest single-day online fundraising haul.
The GOP says the fundraising surge is fueled by anger over how allegations of sexual misconduct against Kavanaugh have played out.
On the other side, the online Democratic fundraising portal ActBlue pulled in $25 million in just two days, while Emily’s List, a group that aims to elect more Democratic women, also set a record for online fundraising.
The final Senate vote on Kavanaugh’s confirmation is set to take place today.
The GOP’s support of Kavanaugh puts the party at odds with the rising #MeToo movement that has empowered women across America to share their stories of sexual violence. The movement has triggered the downfall of powerful men in media, sports and politics — Republicans and Democrats alike.
“It’s a very scary time for young men,” Trump said this week. A day later, he mocked Kavanaugh’s accuser’s memory of the alleged sexual assault.
Many women have been angered by Trump’s comments.
“The idea that it’s a terrible time to be a young, white guy is completely absurd,” said Florida-based Democratic strategist Steve Schale.
He noted, however, there is “some evidence that the Kavanaugh stuff is galvanizing Republicans, particularly Republican men.”
“It’s coming at a price,” Schale added. “We’re seeing Republican women throw their hands up.”
Political strategist Matthew Dowd, a former Republican who has criticized Trump, said it’s unclear so far whether GOP energy behind Kavanaugh represents “some men on social media” or a “movement.”
“I’ve always been a believer that the most motivating factor in these elections is who is the angriest,” Dowd said. “Whoever loses is going to be the angriest.” Information for this article was contributed by Brian Slodysko, Zeke Miller and Jill Colvin of The Associated Press.