What to expect when Oscar nominations go out
Now that our heads have stopped spinning from the recent Golden Globes, we can focus on Tuesday’s forthcoming Oscar nominations.
There are really just two burning questions: One is whether Bohemian Rhapsody, a surprise winner at the Globes, will be nominated for best picture. Another is whether Black Panther, the rare superhero movie to become a critical and commercial smash, might strike a blow for populism with a best picture nomination of its own. At the moment, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences looks a little clueless and chaotic, thanks to its embarrassing “best popular film” proposal last year and its loss of Kevin Hart as a host this year. The right mix of Oscar nominations could help.
Here’s what to look for during Tuesday’s announcement of the 91st annual Academy Award nominees.
Bohemian Rhapsody: A quick theory about how this Freddie Mercury bio-pic stole the Golden Globe for best dramatic film: Despite mixed-to-savage reviews in the United States, Bohemian Rhapsody earned high marks from audiences and performed well overseas — and remember, the Globes are voted on by foreign journalists. Looking toward the Oscars, it’s worth noting that the movie known as Bo Rhap is a Producers Guild of America nominee, an almost sure sign that it will be a best picture nominee as well. Look for its star, Rami Malek, to show up in the best actor category, too.
Black Panther: There seems little doubt that this groundbreaking, deep-reaching comic-book movie featuring Chadwick Boseman as the first black superhero to anchor his own Disney-Marvel movie will earn a best picture nomination. (If it doesn’t, prepare for an all-out riot on Twitter.) As for other nods, acting and directing may be out of reach, but adapted screenplay, art direction and costume design seem likely.
Roma: Alfonso Cuaron’s latest, a likely best picture nominee, is a heartfelt ode to his childhood in Mexico. But has anyone seen this Netflix production — either in theaters or at home? That’s hard to say since Netflix does not release box-office receipts or viewership numbers. In late December, IndieWire hazarded a guess of $2.2 million in tickets sales, which would make Roma a classic example of an Oscar nominee: rapturously reviewed, little seen. Look for Roma to show up in the foreign language film category, too.
Green Book: For a straightforward comedy-drama with an anti-racist message, Peter Farrelly’s film starring Mahershala Ali as a black musician and Viggo Mortensen as his white chauffeur has become a polarizer. Depending on who you ask, it’s either a cliched civil rights story with the same old stereotypes, or a well-acted film that entertains and illuminates. After it led the Globes with three wins, screenwriter Nick Vallelonga came under new scrutiny for old anti-Muslim tweets, adding more fuel to the overall debate. (He has since apologized.) Green Book seems sure to earn nominations
for best picture, actor (Mortensen), supporting actor (Ali, who won a Globe for this performance) and original screenplay. Farrelly could get a nod for best director, too.
A Star Is Born: Few movies could feel more Hollywood than this, the fifth iteration of an 86-year-old classic about a famous entertainer (this time a country singer, played by Bradley Cooper) who falls for a rising new talent (Lady Gaga, in her first major film role). Cooper’s directorial debut wowed critics and audiences alike; it has music, romance, drama, you name it. Look for this film to lead the best picture category.