ACES ON BRIDGE

Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler. — Albert Einstein

Yesterday, we mentioned Occam’s Razor, a hypothesis dating from medieval times. It states that when comparing two explanations, one should assume the truth of the one with the fewer assumptions. This applies to bridge in the form of the Theory of Restricted Choice — and, as we shall see later this week, to what is popularly known as the Monty Hall Problem.

In bridge terms, when comparing two possibilities, we must reduce the probability of an event if a player had previously had a choice of equals to play; this is because he might have played either of them at that turn. But enough theory — let’s look at a deal and see how it works in practice.

In three no-trump, you win the spade lead and drive out the heart ace, then win the spade return and cash the hearts, both defenders pitching small diamonds. With no clue as to who has the fifth spade, you need to bring in the clubs now.

You cash the club ace, then cross to the club queen, bringing down the 10 from West. Should you finesse or play for the drop on the third round? The appropriate percentages to measure up are jackfourth or 10-fourth of clubs in East against J-10-x in West.You should not look at just the chance of jack-fourth against J-10-x (where the odds would be very close), because West would have had a choice of high spot-cards to play from that holding at his second turn. That makes the finesse the clearly indicated play.

ANSWER: You have just enough to bid two diamonds, an Unassuming Cue-Bid to show club support and a better hand than a simple raise. This should get you to hearts or no-trump, if that is appropriate, and you plan to bid three clubs over a two-spade rebid.

If you would like to contact Bobby Wolff, email him at bobbywolff@mindspring.com