ACES ON BRIDGE
There are two possible outcomes: If the result confirms the hypothesis, then you’ve made a measurement. If the result is contrary to the hypothesis, then you’ve made a discovery. — Enrico Fermi
All our deals this week have focused on the principle of Restricted Choice; but this concept cannot be considered purely in abstract, as today’s deal from the later stages of a Vanderbilt Trophy match shows.
Declaring four spades, your chances do not seem so great on a devious low diamond lead, but when the diamond king holds the first trick, things look up. Draw two rounds of trumps, ending in hand, and lead a heart to the jack and king. Now East cashes the diamond queen and returns the heart 10, on which West unblocks the queen.
You ruff the last heart in hand, cross to dummy in trumps, and lead a low club, intending to put in the seven. Naturally,
East thwarts you by playing the nine, so you try the queen, losing to the king. When West returns a low club, what should you do?
If you have been following this week’s theme, you may conclude that Restricted Choice suggests playing low. The logic for that would be that East is more likely to have J-8-x or J-9-x than 9-8-x. However, there is a much sounder argument for putting in the six, if you remember the earlier play. East can be assumed to be a true expert player; with three low clubs, as opposed to jack-third, he would not have defended this way when on lead earlier in the hand. He would have shifted to a club rather than returning a heart, to break up the impending endplay.
ANSWER: Is your hand worth a try for game? That isn’t clear, but you do not know whether game your way or their way will be playable. Much may depend on the nature of the double-fit, if any. If partner has diamond or heart values, you will want to defend; with black-suit values, you will want to declare the hand. So bid three clubs, perhaps a slight overbid, to help partner decide how far to compete.